Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN SOME DRIER CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST...BUT MODEST MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL STILL PERSIST FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE DRIER AIR WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...CONFINING RAIN
CHANCES TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
AROUND 110 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITHIN JUST THE LAST TWO HOURS...FROM 1830Z THROUGH
2030Z...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA
HAS POPULATED AND FILLED IN QUITE NICELY. KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON A
SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS THIS MORNING...ALL HINTED AT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MARICOPA COUNTY INCLUDING PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING WAS A BIT OFF WITH THE MODELS
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS ACTUALLY OCCURRING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING THE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WAS REALIZED RATHER RAPIDLY. WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA...THE HIGH RES MODELS PICKED UP ON
THAT AND HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. PER THE 12Z SOUNDING FOR PSR...A
-8C TEMPERATURE AT 500MB PAIRED WITH OVER 1.6 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROVIDES A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DIFFLUENCE FROM 500-300MB ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA
WILL PROVIDE A GOOD BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE STILL
UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STEERING FLOW IS RATHER WEAK.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BETTER PLACES ITSELF SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE WEST...TOMORROW BOASTS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW FROM 500MB TO 300MB AND
MINIMAL DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF TRIGGER
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL MIXING RATIO VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW 8 G/KG. A SUBTLE DRYING TREND AND
AN UNFAVORABLE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN THROUGH MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN HOLD ON TO PERSISTENCE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...AND

THROUGH 04Z FRI...SCT-NMRS TSTMS OVER THE DISTANT MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
PHOENIX WILL LIKELY GENERATE A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. SINCE MONSOON MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY
HIGH FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER TSTMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THRU THE PHOENIX VALLEY. TSTMS WILL DVLP IN THE VICINITY OF VALLEY
AIRPORTS. THEREFORE THROUGH 04Z FRI...SCT-BKN CLDS BASED 8 TO 10
THSD AGL WITH A FEW TSTMS AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. FROM 04Z FRI TO
06Z FRI...SCT-BKN CLDS 8-10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLATED SHWRS. FROM 06Z
FRI TO 16Z FRI...SCT CLDS BASED 8 TO 10 THSD AGL WITH BKN HIGH
CLOUDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 07Z FRI...SCT CLDS 8 TO 10 THSD AGL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
8 TO 10 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL SPREAD INTO
REGION FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TSTMS IS STILL FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HOTTER DESERTS IN EXCESS OF 110...WITH SOME COOLING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS BUT STAY
MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA EACH DAY WITH
VALUES REACHING 25 PERCENT IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
232 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

AZZ022-023-272215-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA AZ-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY AZ-
232 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY

UNTIL 315 PM MST

AT 232 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CASTLE HOT SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WITTMANN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VISTANCIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 11217 3375 11250 3394 11252 3389 11228
      3391 11224 3395 11224 3400 11219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 263DEG 9KT 3389 11242

CK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
243 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

AZZ024-272230-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS AZ-
243 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL GILA AND EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES

UNTIL 330 PM MST

AT 242 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUPERIOR. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GILA
AND EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 11085 3317 11090 3324 11094 3313 11112
      3325 11115 3333 11093 3312 11079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 338DEG 4KT 3321 11101

CK

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