Alert archive / Oregon / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 21, NWS Portland, OR

December 7, 2015Clackamas County, Oregon

NWS Portland, OR issued this river flood warning at Dec 7, 2015, 1:07 PM PST for Clackamas County, Oregon. It took effect at Dec 7, 2015, 11:50 PM PST. It was in force for 52 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 7, 2015, 1:07 PM PST (21:07 UTC)
In effect from: Dec 7, 2015, 11:50 PM PST
Expired: Dec 10, 2015, 4:07 AM PST
In force: 52 hr
Issued by: NWS Portland, OR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Clackamas County, OR

The radar

The Portland,OR radar (KRTX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Clackamas River near Oregon City (COCO3). The gauge peaked at 37.57 ft at Dec 8, 2015, 1:00 AM PST.

Action stage: 38 ft
Minor stage: 39 ft
Moderate stage: 42 ft
Major stage: 46 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 14211010, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

507 
WGUS46 KPQR 072107
FLWPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
107 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015
 
NW Oregon/SW Washington Coastal Basins Bulletin
Willamette Tributaries Bulletin

...The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Alsea River Near Tidewater affecting Benton and Lincoln Counties
  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County
  Santiam River At Jefferson affecting Linn and Marion Counties
  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County
  Clackamas River near Oregon City affecting Clackamas County

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases. Forecasts will be updated through the evening to account 
for any changes in predicted rainfall amounts.

Visit weather.gov/portland for the latest weather and river 
forecasts.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 9 pm Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown. Don't drive into flooded areas. 
Avoid walking near riverbanks during high water.

&&

ORC043-047-080507-
/O.NEW.KPQR.FL.W.0019.151208T0522Z-151209T0221Z/
/JFFO3.1.ER.151208T0522Z.151208T1200Z.151208T2021Z.NO/
107 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Santiam River At Jefferson.
* from this evening to Tuesday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12 PM Monday the stage was...8.5 feet / 19800 cfs.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet and flood flow is 56300 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is forecast to rise above flood stage around 
  9 PM Monday and is expected to crest near 17.0 ft Tuesday morning.
* Impact...Above 15.0 ft, expect widespread lowland and agricultural 
  flooding. Some secondary roads in low lying areas will be flooded 
  at this level.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4474 12310 4476 12309 4474 12303 4470 12298 4468 12300

$$

ORC005-080507-
/O.NEW.KPQR.FL.W.0020.151207T2355Z-151210T1657Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.151207T2355Z.151209T1800Z.151210T1057Z.NO/
107 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Clackamas River at Estacada.
* from this afternoon to Thursday morning...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12 PM Monday the stage was...16.6 feet / 9400 cfs.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet and flood flow is 23300 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is forecast to rise above flood stage around 
  4 PM Monday and is expected to crest near 23.0 feet 10 pm Monday.
* Impact...Above 23 ft, expect flooding to begin in the light 
  industrial areas near the confluence of the Clackamas and 
  Willamette Rivers. A trailer court at Carver is threatened at this 
  point. Some access roads are flooded and closed above this level 
  from Estacada downstream to Carver.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4529 12235 4536 12243 4538 12250 4541 12249 4539 12239

$$

ORC005-080506-
/O.NEW.KPQR.FL.W.0021.151208T0750Z-151210T1207Z/
/COCO3.1.ER.151208T0750Z.151210T0000Z.151210T0607Z.UU/
107 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Clackamas River near Oregon City.
* from this evening to late Wednesday night...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At 11 AM Monday the stage was...20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 39.0 feet and flood flow is 40000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is forecast to rise above flood stage around 
  12 AM Tuesday and is expected to crest around 40.0 ft Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...Above 39.0 ft, expect minor flooding of low areas along 
  the lower Clackamas River, including Clackamette Park, the Oregon 
  City shopping center, and some agricultural land downstream of 
  Carver Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4538 12250 4537 12260 4539 12260 4541 12256 4541 12249

$$

ORC003-041-080506-
/O.NEW.KPQR.FL.W.0022.151207T2357Z-151210T0657Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.151207T2357Z.151208T1200Z.151210T0057Z.NO/
107 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Alsea River Near Tidewater.
* from this afternoon to Wednesday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12 PM Monday the stage was...14.7 feet / 14200 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 19500 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is forecast to rise above flood stage around 
  4 PM Monday and is expected to crest at 21.5 ft around 4 AM 
  Tuesday.
* Impact...Above 20 ft, water begins to surround houses at the 
  'Little Albany' community on Highway 34 near Milepost 8. Widespread 
  pasture and dairy land flooding can be expected. Flooding of 
  numerous roads along and near the river occurs at this level.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4437 12382 4440 12402 4444 12402 4441 12382

$$

ORC039-080506-
/O.NEW.KPQR.FL.W.0023.151207T2324Z-151208T1502Z/
/MPLO3.1.ER.151207T2324Z.151208T0600Z.151208T0902Z.NO/
107 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* until Tuesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12 PM Monday the stage was...16.9 feet / 19900 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is forecast to rise above flood stage around 
  3 PM Monday and is expected to crest at 18.5 ft around 10 PM 
  Monday.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, expect minor flooding of low lying dairy land 
  along with some structures right along the banks of the Siuslaw 
  River in and near Mapleton.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4397 12402 4400 12404 4408 12387 4406 12380 4401 12384

$$

6 follow-up statements

349 
WGUS86 KPQR 072213
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015
 
Willamette Tributaries Bulletin 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County
  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County
  Santiam River At Jefferson affecting Linn and Marion Counties
  Clackamas River near Oregon City affecting Clackamas County
  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Clackamas and Multnomah 
  Counties

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 9 PM Monday.

ORC043-047-080613-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0019.151208T0522Z-151209T0221Z/
/JFFO3.1.ER.151208T0522Z.151208T1200Z.151208T2021Z.NO/
213 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Santiam River At Jefferson.
* from this evening to Tuesday evening or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12 PM Monday the stage was...8.8 feet / 20790 cfs.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet and flood flow is 56300 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 9 PM 
  Monday and is expected to crest at 16.9 ft around 4 AM Tuesday.
* Impact...Above 15.0 ft, expect widespread lowland and agricultural 
  flooding. Some secondary roads in low lying areas will be flooded 
  at this level.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4474 12310 4476 12309 4474 12303 4470 12298 4468 12300

$$

ORC067-080613-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0015.151207T2315Z-151210T1748Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.151207T2315Z.151209T1800Z.151210T0848Z.NR/
213 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tualatin River near Dilley.
* until Thursday morning or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 1 PM Monday the stage was...16.6 feet / 1240 cfs.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet and flood flow is 2500 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 5 PM 
  Monday and is expected to crest at 18.0 ft around 10 PM Monday.
* Impact...Above 18.5 ft, a few homes are threatened by floodwaters. 
  Numerous roads are flooded and may be closed, and widespread 
  lowland agricultural flooding occurs.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4544 12313 4548 12312 4551 12308 4549 12305 4547 12311

$$

ORC005-080613-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.151207T2355Z-151210T1657Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.151207T2355Z.151209T1800Z.151210T1057Z.NO/
213 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River at Estacada.
* until Thursday morning or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 2 PM Monday the stage was...18.0 feet / 13410 cfs.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet and flood flow is 23300 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 5 PM 
  Monday and is expected to crest at 22.9 ft around 10 PM Monday.
* Impact...Above 23 ft, expect flooding to begin in the light 
  industrial areas near the confluence of the Clackamas and 
  Willamette Rivers. A trailer court at Carver is threatened at this 
  point. Some access roads are flooded and closed above this level 
  from Estacada downstream to Carver.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4529 12235 4536 12243 4538 12250 4541 12249 4539 12239

$$

ORC005-080612-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0021.151208T0750Z-151210T1207Z/
/COCO3.1.ER.151208T0750Z.151210T0000Z.151210T0607Z.UU/
213 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River near Oregon City.
* from this evening to late Wednesday night or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12 PM Monday the stage was...30.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 39.0 feet and flood flow is 40000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 12 AM 
  Tuesday and is expected to crest at 40.1 ft around 4 AM Tuesday.
* Impact...Above 39.0 ft, expect minor flooding of low areas along the
  lower Clackamas River, including Clackamette Park, the Oregon City 
  shopping center, and some agricultural land downstream of Carver 
  Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4538 12250 4537 12260 4539 12260 4541 12256 4541 12249

$$

ORC005-051-080612-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151210T0511Z/
/SYCO3.3.ER.151207T1805Z.151209T1200Z.151209T2311Z.NR/
213 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Major Flood Warning continues for
  The Johnson Creek at Sycamore.
* At 1 PM Monday the stage was...14.5 feet / 2090 cfs.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet and flood flow is 1200 cfs. Major flood stage
  is 14.0 feet and major flood flow is 2200 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested above major flood stage at 14.5 ft at
  130 PM Monday. This river is expected to fall below flood stage around
  3 AM Tuesday. However...this river is expected to rise again...reaching
  flood stage by 8 PM Tuesday.
* Major flooding can be expected during the crest.
* Impact...Above 14 ft, Expect widespread flooding of residential and 
  commercial areas along johnson creek.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4548 12256 4549 12246 4548 12245 4547 12257

$$

492 
WGUS86 KPQR 080504
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
904 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015
 
Willamette Tributaries Bulletin
Lower Columbia Bulletin
 
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Santiam River At Jefferson affecting Linn and Marion Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County
  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County
  Clackamas River near Oregon City affecting Clackamas County
  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Clackamas and Multnomah 
  Counties
  Hood River near Hood River affecting Hood River County

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 8 am Tuesday.

ORC043-047-080534-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-151209T0221Z/
/JFFO3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
904 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Santiam River At Jefferson.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was...11.3 feet / 33600 cfs.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet and flood flow is 56300 cfs.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise later, reaching levels around 13.2 
  ft by 4 AM Tuesday. At this time, any rise is expected to remain 
  below flood stage.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4474 12310 4476 12309 4474 12303 4470 12298 4468 12300

$$

ORC067-081604-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-151211T0651Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.151208T0446Z.151210T0000Z.151210T2151Z.NR/
904 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tualatin River near Dilley.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was...17.4 feet / 2140 cfs.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet and flood flow is 2500 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 9 PM 
  Monday and is expected to crest at 18.0 ft Tuesday morning.
* Impact...Above 17.5 ft, several minor roads begin to flood and may 
  be closed. Widespread lowland agricultural flooding occurs at this 
  and higher stages.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4544 12313 4548 12312 4551 12308 4549 12305 4547 12311

$$

ORC005-081604-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-151210T1741Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.151208T0247Z.151209T1800Z.151210T1141Z.NO/
904 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River at Estacada.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was...20.4 feet / 22700 cfs.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet and flood flow is 22000 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 20.4 ft Monday evening. It is
  expected to fall below flood stage around Thursday morning. 
  However...this river is expected to rise again...reaching flood 
  stage early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...Above 20 ft, expect lowland flooding from Estacada several 
  miles downstream to Carver.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4529 12235 4536 12243 4538 12250 4541 12249 4539 12239

$$

ORC005-081604-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.151208T1057Z-151210T1317Z/
/COCO3.1.ER.151208T1057Z.151210T0000Z.151210T0717Z.UU/
904 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River near Oregon City.
* from late tonight to late Wednesday night or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 6 PM Monday the stage was...35.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 39.0 feet and flood flow is 40000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 3 AM 
  Tuesday and is expected to crest at 39.2 ft around 4 AM Tuesday.
* Impact...Above 39.0 ft, expect minor flooding of low areas along the
  lower Clackamas River, including Clackamette Park, the Oregon City 
  shopping center, and some agricultural land downstream of Carver 
  Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4538 12250 4537 12260 4539 12260 4541 12256 4541 12249

$$

ORC005-051-081604-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151210T0620Z/
/SYCO3.3.ER.151207T1805Z.151208T0145Z.151210T0020Z.NR/
904 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Johnson Creek at Sycamore.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was...14.8 feet / 2250 cfs.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet and flood flow is 1200 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 15.3 ft 6 pm Monday. It is
  expected to fall below flood stage around 7 am Tuesday. 
  However...this river is expected to rise again...reaching flood 
  stage Tuesday evening. Major flooding is possibly Wednesday.
* Impact...Above 14 ft, expect widespread flooding of residential and 
  commercial areas along Johnson Creek.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4548 12256 4549 12246 4548 12245 4547 12257

$$

ORC027-081326-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-151208T1326Z/
/HODO3.1.ER.151208T0535Z.151208T0600Z.151208T0726Z.NO/
904 PM PST MON DEC 7 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Hood River Near Hood River.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was...12.0 feet / 11380 cfs.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet and flood flow is 13800 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is fluctuating around flood stage and will 
  remain high through Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible
  Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Impact...Above 13.0 feet, expect the river to go over its banks in
  a few locations. Minor flooding of low-lying property and roads 
  adjacent to the river is likely. Stay away from river banks that 
  may be eroded away by the high and fast-flowing water.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4564 12160 4566 12151 4571 12150 4571 12151 4567 12154

$$

627 
WGUS86 KPQR 081237
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
437 AM PST TUE DEC 8 2015
 
Willamette Tributaries Bulletin
 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Luckiamute River near Suver affecting Benton and Polk Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...
  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County
  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County
  Clackamas River near Oregon City affecting Clackamas County
  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Clackamas and Multnomah 
  Counties

.[optional - insert summary. Leave starting dot -or- delete line.]

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by Noon Tuesday.

ORC003-053-082037-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-151211T1618Z/
/SUVO3.1.ER.151208T0658Z.151210T0600Z.151211T0718Z.NO/
437 AM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Luckiamute River near Suver.
* At 1 AM Tuesday the stage was...28.7 feet / 10125 cfs.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet and flood flow is 7500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will crest near 29 ft early this morning
  before subsiding later today. However, it is expected to increase
  once again tonight and crest near 30 ft late Wednesday. 
* Impact...Above 29.0 ft, expect widespread flooding of the lowland 
  agricultural lands upstream from Falls City and Maple Grove to the 
  confluence with the Willamette River. Also expect flooding and 
  possible closure of numerous secondary roads near the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4479 12327 4479 12321 4476 12316 4472 12316 4475 12323

$$

ORC067-082037-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-151211T0651Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.151208T0445Z.151210T0000Z.151210T2151Z.NR/
437 AM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tualatin River near Dilley.
* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was...17.9 feet / 3315 cfs.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet and flood flow is 2500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river is temporarily cresting near 18 ft and
  it should begin to slowly recede today. However, additional rain
  late today and overnight should push this river back above 
  18 ft late Wednesday.
* Impact...Above 18.5 ft, a few homes are threatened by floodwaters. 
  Numerous roads are flooded and may be closed, and widespread 
  lowland agricultural flooding occurs.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4544 12313 4548 12312 4551 12308 4549 12305 4547 12311

$$

ORC005-082037-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-151210T1741Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.151208T0247Z.151209T1800Z.151210T1141Z.NO/
437 AM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River at Estacada.
* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was...18.9 feet / 21020 cfs.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet and flood flow is 23300 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will continue to subside this morning before
  rising again later today. It is expected to crest well above flood
  stage near 23 ft late Tuesday night. 
* Impact...Above 23 ft, expect flooding to begin in the light 
  industrial areas near the confluence of the Clackamas and 
  Willamette Rivers. A trailer court at Carver is threatened at this 
  point. Some access roads are flooded and closed above this level 
  from Estacada downstream to Carver.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4529 12235 4536 12243 4538 12250 4541 12249 4539 12239

$$

ORC005-082037-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-151210T1317Z/
/COCO3.1.ER.151209T1502Z.151210T0000Z.151210T0717Z.UU/
437 AM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River near Oregon City.
* At 12 AM Tuesday the stage was...37.4 feet / MSG cfs.
* Flood stage is 39.0 feet and flood flow is 40000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage of 39 ft around 
  7 AM Wednesday before subsiding later today. However, it is expected
  to rise again Tuesday night and crest above flood stage on Wednesday. 
* Impact...Above 39.0 ft, expect minor flooding of low areas along the
  lower Clackamas River, including Clackamette Park, the Oregon City 
  shopping center, and some agricultural land downstream of Carver 
  Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4538 12250 4537 12260 4539 12260 4541 12256 4541 12249

$$

ORC005-051-082037-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151210T0620Z/
/SYCO3.3.ER.151207T1805Z.151208T0145Z.151210T0020Z.NR/
437 AM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Johnson Creek at Sycamore.
* At 3 AM Tuesday the stage was...8.6 feet / 642.5 cfs.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet and flood flow is 1200 cfs.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will continue to subside early today before 
  rising again late today and overnight. It is expected to rise back 
  above flood stage late this evening and approach 15 ft again late
  Tuesday night. 
* Impact...Above 14 ft, Expect widespread flooding of residential and 
  commercial areas along johnson creek.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4548 12256 4549 12246 4548 12245 4547 12257

$$

240 
WGUS86 KPQR 082044
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1244 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015
 
Willamette Tributaries Bulletin
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Luckiamute River near Suver affecting Benton and Polk Counties
  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County
  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County
  Clackamas River near Oregon City affecting Clackamas County
  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Clackamas and Multnomah Counties

.Rainfall is increasing across Northwest Oregon this afternoon, and 
the heaviest rain is expected overnight and early Wednesday.

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 8 pm Tuesday.

ORC003-053-090444-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-151211T2212Z/
/SUVO3.1.ER.151208T0658Z.151208T1330Z.151211T1312Z.NO/
1244 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Luckiamute River near Suver.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was...30.0 feet / 13700 cfs.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet and flood flow is 7500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 30.3 ft Tuesday morning and will 
  fluctuate between 29.0 and 30.5 feet through Wednesday. 
* Impact...Above 29.0 ft, expect widespread flooding of the lowland 
  agricultural lands upstream from Falls City and Maple Grove to the 
  confluence with the Willamette River. Also expect flooding and 
  possible closure of numerous secondary roads near the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4479 12327 4479 12321 4476 12316 4472 12316 4475 12323

$$

ORC067-090444-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-151211T0638Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.151208T0445Z.151210T0600Z.151210T2138Z.NR/
1244 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tualatin River near Dilley.
* At 12 PM Tuesday the stage was...17.6 feet / 2750 cfs.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet and flood flow is 2500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will drop below flood stage this afternoon 
  but rise again above flood stage Wednesday morning and crest 
  around 18.0 feet early Thursday.
* Impact...Above 17.5 ft, several minor roads begin to flood and may 
  be closed. Widespread lowland agricultural flooding occurs at this 
  and higher stages.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4544 12313 4548 12312 4551 12308 4549 12305 4547 12311

$$

ORC005-090444-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-151210T1031Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.151208T0247Z.151209T1800Z.151210T0431Z.NO/
1244 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River at Estacada.
* At 12 PM Tuesday the stage was...17.0 feet / 12500 cfs.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet and flood flow is 23300 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is currently dropping but will rise again 
  above flood stage around 7 AM Wednesday and is expected to crest 
  around 21.0 ft mid-day Wednesday.
* Impact...Above 21 ft, expect widespread flooding of lowland and 
  agricultural land from Estacada to Carver. Numerous parks along the
  river are also threatened with flooding.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4529 12235 4536 12243 4538 12250 4541 12249 4539 12239

$$

ORC005-090444-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-151210T0601Z/
/COCO3.1.ER.151209T2359Z.151210T0000Z.151210T0001Z.UU/
1244 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River near Oregon City.
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was...33.6 feet / 21300 cfs.
* Flood stage is 39.0 feet and flood flow is 40000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is currently falling. However, it is expected
  to rise above flood stage and crest around 39.1 feet Wednesday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...Above 39.0 ft, expect minor flooding of low areas along the
  lower Clackamas River, including Clackamette Park, the Oregon City 
  shopping center parking lot, and some agricultural land downstream 
  of Carver Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4538 12250 4537 12260 4539 12260 4541 12256 4541 12249

$$

ORC005-051-090444-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151210T0534Z/
/SYCO3.3.ER.151207T1805Z.151208T0145Z.151209T2334Z.NR/
1244 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Johnson Creek at Sycamore.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was...6.3 feet / 380 cfs.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet and flood flow is 1200 cfs.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 11 PM 
  Tuesday. It will continue to rise and reach major flood stage, 14.0
  feet, early Wednesday morning and crest near 15.0 feet around 5 am 
  Wednesday.
* Impact...Above 14 ft, expect widespread flooding of residential and 
  commercial areas along Johnson Creek. Flooding is likely to be 
  similar to the flooding seen Monday, although not quite as high. 
  Closely monitor local conditions, road closures, and evacuation 
  notices.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4548 12256 4549 12246 4548 12245 4547 12257

$$

299 
WGUS86 KPQR 090335
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
735 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015
 
Willamette Tributaries Bulletin

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Luckiamute River near Suver affecting Benton and Polk Counties
  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County
  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County
  Clackamas River near Oregon City affecting Clackamas County
  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Clackamas and Multnomah Counties

.Heavy rainfall has tapered off a bit during the early evening but
will become heavier again later this evening and overnight.

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 4 AM Wednesday.

ORC003-053-091135-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-151211T1203Z/
/SUVO3.1.ER.151208T0658Z.151208T1330Z.151211T0303Z.NO/
735 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Luckiamute River near Suver.
* At 4 PM Tuesday the stage was...29.3 feet / 11620 cfs.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet and flood flow is 7500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 30.3 ft Tuesday morning and 
  fluctuate between 28.0 and 29.5 through Wednesday.
* Impact...Above 29.0 ft, expect widespread flooding of the lowland 
  agricultural lands upstream from Falls City and Maple Grove to the 
  confluence with the Willamette River. Also expect flooding and 
  possible closure of numerous secondary roads near the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4479 12327 4479 12321 4476 12316 4472 12316 4475 12323

$$

ORC067-091135-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-151211T0705Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.151208T0445Z.151210T0000Z.151210T2205Z.NR/
735 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tualatin River near Dilley.
* At 6 PM Tuesday the stage was...17.4 feet / 2460 cfs.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet and flood flow is 2500 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This is river is currently dropping but will rise
  again above flood stage again around 1 AM Wednesday and is
  expected to crest around 18.2 ft mid-day Wednesday.
* Impact...Above 17.5 ft, several minor roads begin to flood and
  may be closed. Widespread lowland agricultural flooding occurs
  at this and higher stages.
&&
 
LAT...LON 4544 12313 4548 12312 4551 12308 4549 12305 4547 12311

$$

ORC005-091135-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-151210T0629Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.151208T0247Z.151208T0545Z.151210T0029Z.NO/
735 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River at Estacada.
* At 7 PM Tuesday the stage was...16.2 feet / 10000 cfs.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet and flood flow is 23300 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage again around 
  8 AM Wednesday and is expected to crest near 20.5 ft mid-morning
  Wednesday.
* Impact...Above 20 ft, expect lowland flooding from Estacada 
  several miles downstream to Carver.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4529 12235 4536 12243 4538 12250 4541 12249 4539 12239

$$

ORC005-091135-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-151210T0601Z/
/COCO3.1.ER.151209T2359Z.151210T0000Z.151210T0001Z.UU/
735 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Clackamas River near Oregon City.
* At 5 PM Tuesday the stage was...32.2 feet / 17400 cfs.
* Flood stage is 39.0 feet and flood flow is 40000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river is currently falling. However, it is expected
  to rise above flood stage again and crest near 39.0 Wednesday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...Above 39.0 ft, expect minor flooding of low areas along the
  lower Clackamas River, including Clackamette Park, the Oregon City 
  shopping center, and some agricultural land downstream of Carver 
  Bridge.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4538 12250 4537 12260 4539 12260 4541 12256 4541 12249

$$

ORC005-051-091135-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151210T0601Z/
/SYCO3.3.ER.151207T1805Z.151208T0145Z.151210T0001Z.NR/
735 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Johnson Creek at Sycamore.
* At 6 PM Tuesday the stage was...9.0 feet / 710 cfs.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet and flood flow is 1200 cfs.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage late Tuesday 
  evening and is expected to crest near 15.0 ft around 4 AM Wednesday.
* Major flooding can be expected during the crest.
* Impact...Above 14 ft, expect widespread flooding of residential and 
  commercial areas along Johnson Creek. Flooding is likely to be 
  similar to the flooding seen Monday, although not quite as high.
  Closely monitor local conditions, road closures, and evacuation
  notices.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4548 12256 4549 12246 4548 12245 4547 12257

$$

012 
WGUS86 KPQR 091105
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015
 
Willamette Tributaries Bulletin
 

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County
  Clackamas River near Oregon City affecting Clackamas County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Clackamas and Multnomah Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...
  Luckiamute River near Suver affecting Benton and Polk Counties
  S Yamhill River at McMinnville affecting Yamhill County
  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County


River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 11 am Wednesday.

ORC003-053-091905-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-151211T1203Z/
/SUVO3.1.ER.151208T0658Z.151208T1330Z.151211T0303Z.NO/
305 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Luckiamute River near Suver.
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was...28.1 feet / 8838 cfs.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet and flood flow is 7500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will crest around 29.5 ft late Wednesday
  evening and is expected to fall below flood stage late Thursday. 
* Impact...Above 29.0 ft, expect widespread flooding of the lowland 
  agricultural lands upstream from Falls City and Maple Grove to the 
  confluence with the Willamette River. Also expect flooding and 
  possible closure of numerous secondary roads near the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4479 12327 4479 12321 4476 12316 4472 12316 4475 12323

$$

ORC071-091905-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-151211T0621Z/
/MCMO3.1.ER.151209T0847Z.151210T1800Z.151211T0021Z.NO/
305 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The S Yamhill River at McMinnville.
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was...50.2 feet / 19289 cfs.
* Flood stage is 50.0 feet and flood flow is 20200 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will crest around 50.5 ft early Wednesday 
  morning. After the crest, the river may fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday afternoon before rising back above flood stage and 
  cresting around 51 ft on Thursday. 
* Impact...Above 50.0 ft, Expect lowland flooding at several locations
  along the river from McMinnville to the confluence with the 
  Willamette River.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4519 12322 4525 12312 4523 12308 4518 12314 4515 12320

$$

ORC067-091905-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-151211T0705Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.151208T0445Z.151210T0000Z.151210T2205Z.NR/
305 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tualatin River near Dilley.
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was...17.4 feet / 2231 cfs.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet and flood flow is 2500 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage early Wednesday
  morning and is expected to crest just above 18 ft Wednesday 
  evening. 
* Impact...Above 18.5 ft, a few homes are threatened by floodwaters. 
  Numerous roads are flooded and may be closed, and widespread 
  lowland agricultural flooding occurs.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4544 12313 4548 12312 4551 12308 4549 12305 4547 12311

$$

ORC005-091135-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-151210T0629Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.151208T0247Z.151208T0545Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
305 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Clackamas River at Estacada.
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was...15.8 feet / 9433 cfs.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet and flood flow is 23300 cfs.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise Wednesday, but lower rain totals
  than anticipated will likely result in this river remaining
  below flood stage. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4529 12235 4536 12243 4538 12250 4541 12249 4539 12239

$$

ORC005-091135-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-151210T0601Z/
/COCO3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
305 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Clackamas River near Oregon City.
* At 12 AM Wednesday the stage was...31.6 feet / 15674 cfs.
* Flood stage is 39.0 feet and flood flow is 40000 cfs.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise Wednesday, but lower rain totals
  than anticipated will likely result in this river remaining
  below flood stage. 


$$

ORC005-051-091905-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-151210T0420Z/
/SYCO3.3.ER.151207T1805Z.151208T0145Z.151209T2220Z.NR/
305 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Johnson Creek at Sycamore.
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was...9.9 feet / 860.2 cfs.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet and flood flow is 1200 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 4 AM 
  Wednesday and is expected to crest around 12.5 ft late Wednesday
  morning.
* Impact...Above 11 ft, Minor flooding begins along johnson creek from
  se 92nd st to se 122nd st and between johnson creek and se harold 
  st.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4548 12256 4549 12246 4548 12245 4547 12257

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 7, 10:32 AM PST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 7, 10:32 AM PST, 2 hours 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1031 AM PST MON DEC  7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STRONG AND MOIST PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE TO LASH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY SURF FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ONSHORE. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FOLLOW...THEN
MORE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT FRONT
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BRING
MORE WET AND WINDY WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH SURF CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALL THIS RAIN WILL ONLY EXACERBATE FLOODING ISSUES
WHICH ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS ARE IN PROGRESS
RIGHT NOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING BEING
REPORTED AROUND THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA. WE HAVE HAD
2.30 INCHES HERE AT THE OFFICE IN NE PORTLAND JUST SINCE
MIDNIGHT...WITH 1.91 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. RAIN RATES HAVE
LOCALLY EXCEEDED 0.50 INCH PER HOUR...EVEN FOR THE LOWLANDS. AS A
RESULT WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
TO A WARNING SHORTLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN RATES ARE MUCH
LIGHTER SOUTH...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR...SO THE EXISTING ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AS A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT JUST OFFSHORE MOVES INLAND
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THERE IS STRONG WIND BEGINNING TO MOVE
ONSHORE. GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE COAST...WITH
79 MPH REPORTED IN THE PAST HOUR AT ROCKHOUSE RAWS IN THE COAST
RANGE. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED WITH THE DRY SLOT RACING ONSHORE AS IT
IS...THIS MAY HELP THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY TO MIX
DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. WILL INVESTIGATE FURTHER AND MAKE A
DECISION SHORTLY ON WHETHER TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

EVERYTHING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TUE/TUE NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK...AND
12Z MODELS TRENDED TOWARD A VERY DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST BY THURSDAY. WILL OBVIOUSLY MONITOR ALL THIS CLOSELY AND
DISCUSS FURTHER WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.	WEAGLE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW ROTATED
NORTHEAST INTO B.C. OVERNIGHT AND BROUGHT STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS...HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...AND HEAVY
RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...
AND WINDS ON THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND IN THE WILLAPA HILLS HAVE
EASED A BIT. WINDS REMAIN STRONG SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. RAINS
CONTINUE UNABATED OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE WARM FRONT WITH THE NEXT STRONG WAVE/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL. THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY
BACK NORTH ONTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING IN THAT AREA TO COVER THOSE HOURS WHILE THE HIGH WIND
WARNING SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND THE INLAND WIND ADVISORY ARE
UNCHANGED.

THE MODELS SAY THE PRECIPITATION FIELD WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. PRIOR TO THAT...EXPECT A FEW RIVERS WILL REACH FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY...INCLUDING THE GRAYS...NEHALEM...AND WILSON... AND
THE UPPER TUALATIN INLAND. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS STILL VALID.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY AND STALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SECOND WAVE/LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE AT TWO MORE PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS MORE HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD VERY EASILY
RESULT IN MORE FLOODING.

THIS WHOLE PATTERN IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VERY ACTIVE ZONAL JET ACROSS
THE PACIFIC THAT HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH AND
JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 150 KT.

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS PAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY COULD
REACH 12 INCHES IN THE CASCADES AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS... WITH
PERHAPS 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...SO THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY
HYDROLOGICALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON.

SNOW LEVELS STILL APPEAR A BIT LOW IN EASTERN SKAMANIA COUNTY AND
ALONG THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE CREST REGION...SO WILL KEEP THE SNOW
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH THE INCOMING WARM FRONT OVERWHELMS THE TRAPPED COLDER AIR.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY PLACED NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BOTH DEPICTING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE...
APPROXIMATELY 970MB...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP
OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE ATTENDANT OCCLUSION WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
FLUCTUATED SOMEWHAT WILDLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

EITHER WAY...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE 3500-
4000 FT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...THE CASCADES MAY END UP WITH SOME
DECENT SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE IDEA THAT THE AREA MAY TEMPORARILY DRY OUT LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM HITS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY-ISH. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING A BAND OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE REGION...RESULTING IN IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT RAINFALL TO LESSEN
BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...BRINGING MORE LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT FOR THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT FOR THE INTERIOR TAF SITES. WINDS TO DROP OFF
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT RAIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT TO DEVELOP
BY 21Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 03Z TUE. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WATERS HAS RESULTED IN
SHARP DIFFERENCES IN WIND SPEEDS FOR THE WATERS. THE WINDS HAVE
EASED FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STILL BLOWING
STRONG SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD. HAVE CANCELLED THE STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS THERE WILL BE A BURST OF STRONG WINDS AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF
CASCADE HEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE TO
BELOW 30 KT FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE BACK TO
GALES EARLY TUE MORNING WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

A LARGE LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL IS SUBSIDING TODAY. THIS SWELL IS
CURRENTLY AROUND 17 FT AT 15 SECONDS THIS MORNING...AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12 FT AT 14 SECONDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
PERIOD SEAS FROM THE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL
SEAS AROUND 20 FT TODAY.

ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE SEAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE A
HIGH END GALE EVENT...BUT WANT TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDRESSING
THE GALE WATCH. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
A STRONGER STORM WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SEAS WED AND THU.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH TIDES...TIDAL ANOMALIES AND INCREASING RIVER
FLOWS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING UP AND DOWN
THE OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS MON...TUE AND WED
MORNINGS. THE RIVER LEVELS WILL BE HIGHEST TUE AND WED AND MAY
HAVE MORE EXPANSIVE COASTAL FLOODING ON THOSE DAYS. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE
     OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF
     NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-
     NORTH OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GREATER VANCOUVER
     AREA.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PST TUESDAY.

&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 7, 1:01 PM PST, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
101 PM PST MON DEC 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLOOD            PHILOMATH               44.54N 123.36W
12/07/2015                   BENTON             OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED IN THE CITY.

1228 PM     FLOOD            TILLAMOOK               45.46N 123.84W
12/07/2015                   TILLAMOOK          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            US 101 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1138 AM     FLOOD            SWISSHOME               44.05N 123.80W
12/07/2015                   LANE               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OLD MAN CREEK OVERFLOWED BANKS AND IS FLOODING NEARBY
            FIELDS.

1055 AM     FLOOD            ENE PORTLAND AIRPORT    45.59N 122.60W
12/07/2015                   MULTNOMAH          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL FLOODED INTERSECTIONS ALONG SANDY BLVD.

1043 AM     FLOOD            SWEET HOME              44.40N 122.70W
12/07/2015                   LINN               OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2 INCHES OF WATER IN BASEMENT.

1039 AM     FLOOD            PORTLAND AIRPORT        45.59N 122.60W
12/07/2015                   MULTNOMAH          OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            APPROXIMATELY 1 FT OF STANDING WATER ON THE ROAD NEAR THE
            FIRE STATION ON NE 122ND AVE.

1024 AM     FLOOD            CLACKAMAS               45.41N 122.55W
12/07/2015                   CLACKAMAS          OR   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER ENTERING CLACKAMAS COUNTY SHERIFF BROOKDS BUILDING
            HQ.

0939 AM     FLOOD            SILETZ                  44.72N 123.92W
12/07/2015                   LINCOLN            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING IN SILETZ.

0934 AM     FLOOD            TILLAMOOK               45.46N 123.84W
12/07/2015                   TILLAMOOK          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            APPROXIMATELY 6-8 IN OF STANDING WATER IN THE FIELDS
            BELOW HOUSE.

&&

WA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Portland, OR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 6, 9:11 PM PST	Winter Weather Advisory	PQR		13 hr
Dec 7, 2:23 AM PST	High Wind Warning	PQR		15 hr
Dec 7, 3:07 AM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Clatsop, Tillamook	5 days
Dec 7, 3:07 AM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Tillamook	69 hr
Dec 7, 3:46 AM PST	Gale Watch	PQR		11 hr
Dec 7, 6:18 AM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	PQR	Benton, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Hood River, Lincoln and 6 more	15 hr
Dec 7, 8:46 AM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Washington	3 days
Dec 7, 8:46 AM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Clackamas, Multnomah	58 hr
Dec 7, 8:46 AM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Tillamook	56 hr
Dec 7, 8:46 AM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Lincoln	59 hr
Dec 7, 9:04 AM PST	Gale Warning	PQR		12 hr
Dec 7, 10:41 AM PST	Areal Flood Warning	PQR	Clackamas, Columbia, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Washington and 1 more	7 hr
Dec 7, 1:07 PM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Linn, Marion	29 hr
Dec 7, 1:07 PM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Clackamas	68 hr
Dec 7, 1:07 PM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Benton, Lincoln	58 hr
Dec 7, 1:07 PM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Lane	18 hr
Dec 7, 2:46 PM PST	Gale Warning	PQR		43 hr
Dec 7, 2:49 PM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Columbia	8 hr
Dec 7, 2:49 PM PST	River Flood Warning	PQR	Columbia, Hood River	15 hr
Dec 7, 2:58 PM PST	Coastal Flood Watch	PQR		48 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Oregon, 2015 Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.