Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN UNDER AN
INCH FOR THE MOST PART. SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND EAST OF REXBURG WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA BUT GIVEN THE
STRONGER MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM APPROACHING MONDAY DECIDED TO JUST
UPGRADE TO A WARNING TO AVOID HAVING AN ADVISORY WITH A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD THEN A WARNING.

A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE SAWTOOTHS AND SMOKEY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...SO EXPECT HEAVY SNOW ROUGHLY NORTH OF
SHOSHONE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN BURLEY WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION. AREAS FROM AMERICAN FALLS TO POCATELLO TO
BLACKFOOT WILL LIKELY SEE A DOWNSLOPE WIND WHICH WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION AND RAISE TEMPS NOTICEABLY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500FT OR SO. HEAVY SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MID EVENING...BUT MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS. LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM BURLEY THROUGH POCATELLO TO BLACKFOOT WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM IDAHO FALLS TO REXBURG. GIVEN THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW ALONG WITH THE WIND...THINK ROAD CREWS
COULD HAVE A HARD TIME KEEPING UP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS. WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE
POCATELLO AREA BECAUSE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE
OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE CACHE VALLEY INCLUDING PRESTON BECAUSE OF THE HUGE UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS WILL SET UP THERE. CURRENT THINKING IS
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON SNOW LEVELS AND A HUGE CHANGE IN AMOUNTS IS LIKELY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SNOW LEVELS ACTUALLY COME IN AT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH TUESDAY. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS
ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE SHOWERS.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS STILL ARE OFF
BY A FEW HOURS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT STORM IN THE SNOW TRAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT'S A FAST MOVER BUT MAY GIVE
THE MOUNTAINS ANOTHER 2-6 INCHES WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS. WITH THE WINDY PATTERN CONTINUING...EXPECT SOME BLOWING
AND/OR DRIFTING CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE LIGHT AMOUNTS. CHRISTMAS
EVE AND DAY STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SNOWY WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT KEYING ON JUST HOW MUCH RIGHT NOW.
THAT IS BASED ON THE ONGOING THEME THIS FALL...SPLIT FLOW WITH A
CLOSED DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS IS ALSO WETTER VS THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE MORE IMPACTED IF THE GFS
IDEA COMES TRUE. FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...IT APPEARS
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO STRENGTH AND HEAD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SYSTEM SWINGING TOWARD
THE COAST WILL BUILD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW HERE AND THERE BUT THE IDEA WILL BE COLDER
WITH INVERSION CONDITIONS. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN PRETTY STUBBORN TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN...BUT THINGS ARE FINALLY
IMPROVING AT KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA. KSUN HAVE MANAGED TO AVOID ANY OF
THIS SO FAR. THAT WON'T LAST LONG AS A WEAK STORM BRINGS A BAND OF
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING MVFR/IFR
WEATHER WITH THIS BAND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP AT THE SAME
TIME...BUT BLOWING SNOW SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE. AS QUICKLY AS THE
BAND ARRIVES...IT'S GONE. WE SHOULD SEE IT END AT ALL TAF SITES
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6-10Z...WITH KPIH AND KIDA BEING THE LAST. WE ARE
CARRY VCSH AT KSUN...KPIH AND KIDA AS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. THAT SHOULD HELP KEEP
FOG AT BAY BUT NOT KEEP STRATUS FROM FORMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM. ALL SITES HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. RAIN
AND SNOW RETURNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING THINGS TO
BEING CLOSE TO 18Z AT KSUN AND KIDA...WITH KSUN STAYING AS SNOW BUT
KIDA GOING TO AT LEAST A MIX. THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR KBYI AND KPIH. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-25KTS.
KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR IDZ019-023.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
IDZ022-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ017-018-
031.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR IDZ024.

&&

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