Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1249 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
APPROACHING SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTURBANCE
HAS GOOD SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. FAVORED AREAS FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS INCLUDE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS....ALTHOUGH STORM CELLS COULD
EASILY CROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. DISTURBANCE TRACKS TOWARDS ISLAND PARK
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLY APPROACHING A BIT QUICKER AND ARRIVING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. POPS WERE INCREASE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF WASHINGTON AND
RIDGING TOWARD FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH SOME HINT OF MONSOON MOISTURE
SLIPING NORTH TO IDAHO. RS

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN IDAHO A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT ACTIVITY THAT COULD PRODUCE
WINDS OVER 50KTS AT TIMES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. WE
COULD SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN RAIN OR BLOWING DUST AND CEILINGS
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR. TOMORROW WILL BE VFR WITH AFTERNOON WINDS
15-25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THE
THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 60MPH HAS INCREASED TODAY BUT SO HAS
THE THREAT OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD IMPACT CREWS OUT ON
ANY FIRES. WE QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE A DRY BUT
BREEZY THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35MPH ARE FORECAST BUT WE SHOULD
NOT SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD...AS THE HUMIDITY
WILL NOT BE DROPPING THAT LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER EVENT WITH A MIX OF
WET AND DRY STORMS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO
CLOUDY TO SPAWN ENOUGH LIGHTNING TO WARRANT RED FLAG WARNINGS...BE
WILL BE MONITORING TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-413-425-
427.

&&

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