Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
204 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASSIA COUNTY AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ON ANY STORMS OVER THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN...BUT FELT THAT MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS MIGHT
CARRY A CELL INTO THAT AREA. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVANCING INTO
CALIFORNIA WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INTO IDAHO OVER NIGHT
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE IS SUPPORTED BY
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS WHICH SUPPORTS
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...SOME WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
AND SOME MODERATE HAIL. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS...INCLUDING THE SNAKE PLAIN LOOK TO BE THE FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY. THURSDAY WILL BE A STORM FREE DAY...BUT THAT DOES NOT LAST
LONG. THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST COMES IN
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTH FROM MEXICO AND THAT COULD LAST INTO SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
ON...MODELS PLACE THIS AREA BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MONSOON MOISTURE OVER UTAH...COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT ON WHICH WAY THE PATTERN COULD SHIFT
BUT THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN ONCE AGAIN INCHING TOWARDS 90F. RS

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS. THROUGH TONIGHT...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS WHICH MEANS A CONTINUATION OF -TSRA/-SHRA THROUGH
THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH FARTHER EAST THERE SHOULD BE ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
AS THE STORM SWINGS OVER THE STATE TOMORROW...COVERAGE WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST. STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OVER 40KTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...WITH
WEDNESDAY BEING THE BIGGEST RISK DAY FOR THE HAIL AND WIND
POTENTIAL. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MORE WESTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM MOVES
OVERHEAD. GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER ZONE 427 AND POSSIBLY THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE A BIT
OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED IN THOSE AREAS. WE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 427 FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED COVERAGE OR GREATER WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW. WE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR REMAINING CRITICAL AREAS
IN ZONES 410...413 AND 425 FROM 9AM - 9PM TOMORROW. WITH STRONGER
CELLS...EXPECT WINDS TO NEAR 50MPH ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. THE BIGGER RISK DAY FOR HAIL AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOMORROW BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR TODAY EITHER. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND.  KEYES

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ410-413-
425.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ427.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
854 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

IDZ017-018-031-050345-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS ID-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION ID-
854 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN
BLAINE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM MDT...

AT 852 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF FAIRFIELD
TO 9 MILES NORTH OF SHOSHONE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAILEY...KETCHUM...SUN VALLEY...CAREY...PICABO...LITTLE WOOD
RESERVOIR...BELLEVUE...GANNETT...SHOSHONE ICE CAVES AND GARFIELD
RANGER STATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4401 11436 4335 11362 4286 11459 4320 11460
      4320 11438 4326 11437 4333 11440 4333 11454
      4343 11455 4348 11451 4353 11460 4356 11459
      4359 11468 4366 11466 4377 11469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 232DEG 65KT 4348 11482 4308 11439

AD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
944 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

IDZ017-018-020-031-032-050430-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS ID-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION ID-
LOST RIVER/PASHIMEROI ID-
944 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN
LINCOLN...CENTRAL BLAINE...SOUTHWESTERN BUTTE...SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER
AND NORTH CENTRAL MINIDOKA COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

AT 942 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF SUN VALLEY
TO 8 MILES EAST OF CAREY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT THE SUN VALLEY
AIRPORT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARCO...MACKAY...GROUSE...LITTLE WOOD RESERVOIR...MACKAY RESERVOIR...
CRATERS OF THE MOON...DARLINGTON...MOORE...BUTTE CITY...BIG SOUTHERN
BUTTE...COPPER BASIN AIRPORT AND GARFIELD RANGER STATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4402 11354 4339 11297 4312 11374 4367 11429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 244DEG 31KT 4364 11415 4328 11378

AD