Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
213 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM MONTANA
SOUTH TOWARDS BURLEY AREA. EXPECTING THIS BAND TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE
EVENING IS OVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND ARCO DESERT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING INLAND. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRIER AND EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
TO BE MOVING EAST QUICKLY...BY AFTERNOON MAY BE JUST AN ISOLATED
STRAGGLER NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. TEMPERATURES COOL A GOOD 10
DEGREES SUNDAY AND REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO IDAHO WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THEN TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80. RS
&&

.AVIATION...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WINDS THE FRONT WILL ALSO TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...SOME BRIEF LOWERED VIS IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS. MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STRONG AHEAD OF A DEEP EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH. THE FLOW IS BRINGING PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EAST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL DROP AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT
TODAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM TONIGHT. BREEZY AND DRY AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PRECIP SHIFTING TO
THE EAST. A STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT MIN HUMIDITY
REMAINING NEAR 20 PERCENT IMPACTING DECISION NOT TO ISSUE FIRE
HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW. NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-413-422-
427-475-476.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
545 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IDZ017-020-021-300030-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-
545 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH FOR NORTHWESTERN BINGHAM...NORTHWESTERN
POWER...SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN BUTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 630
PM MDT...

AT 544 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ABERDEEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATOMIC CITY.

LAT...LON 4292 11305 4303 11336 4354 11280 4332 11266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 214DEG 40KT 4307 11309

GK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
548 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IDZ020-021-300030-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
548 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN BINGHAM...EAST CENTRAL BUTTE AND NORTHWESTERN BONNEVILLE
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 545 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR TABER. THIS STORM HAS JUST COLLASPED AND SENT OUT A LINE OF
STRONG WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IDAHO FALLS...RIGBY...LORENZO...TERRETON...UCON...MENAN...ROBERTS...
LEWISVILLE...MUD LAKE...HAMER...SOUTHEAST INL...MONTEVIEW...ARCHER...
ROSE...CENTRAL INL...KETTLE BUTTE...SAGE JUNCTION...OSGOOD...THORNTON
AND EAST BUTTE.

LAT...LON 4323 11233 4354 11296 4405 11258 4376 11167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 180DEG 0KT 4332 11251

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
621 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IDZ020-021-300045-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
621 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR CENTRAL BINGHAM COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
MDT...

AT 620 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FORT HALL EAGLE LODGE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKFOOT...FIRTH...MORELAND...ROCKFORD...ROSE...FORT HALL EAGLE
LODGE...GROVELAND...BASALT AND WAPELLO.

LAT...LON 4306 11245 4315 11264 4341 11247 4334 11208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 180DEG 0KT 4315 11245

TW

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