Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
238 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING OVER THE STATE FOR ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE AROUND SUN VALLEY
TO MACKAY TO ISLAND PARK.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN ALONG A LIKELY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
A LOT OF RAIN UNLESS WE GET A LARGE AND SLOWER MOVING STORM OVER AN
AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN CAMAS COUNTY JUST TO OUR WEST
LAST NIGHT. THIS TREND KEEPS ON GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. COVERAGE
TOMORROW OVERALL WILL BE A BIT LESS DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. WE
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A BREEZY ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER PEAKS
AND RIDGE LINES...VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR SMOKE IN THE AREA OF THE ELEVENMILE FIRE AND DOWNWIND TO
THE NORTHEAST. THERE ALSO SHOULD BE A LITTLE SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM FIRES TO THE WEST...SO WE DID INCLUDE SMOKE
IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF A WIND EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THERE IS MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. THE MAIN PART OF THIS SYSTEM STAYS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. WE ARE LOOKING AT 15-
20MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST WHERE PLOWING HAS BEGUN. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL PEAK AT 30 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS UP TO 20MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
LIKELY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT MAINLY IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT IT SHOULD ACT TO CLEAR OUT MOST THE SMOKE TEMPORARILY
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF MORE SMOKE
BLOWS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. A LINGERING
COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT ON
SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT BREEZY WINDS AND LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EACH HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY WITH THIS LOW. EXPECT INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
AREAS. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM COMING THE NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AIDE IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KSUN AND...TO AN LESSER EXTENT...KIDA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WYATT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IS PLENTIFUL ENOUGH
TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOCUSED PARTICULARLY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY SHOWER OR STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MUCH LESS MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WINDS ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FIRST...WITH GUSTY
RIDGETOP WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 35 MPH AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON
SUNDAY...GENERALLY 20-30 MPH. AT PRESENT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN RH OR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ON SATURDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE INCREASE IN WINDS MAY PROMOTE THE SPREAD OF
EXISTING FIRES. AD/KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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