Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
216 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA
COAST IS MOVING INTO OR THIS AFTN...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES IS BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL GETTING A GOOD FLOW
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ID...AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
SCEN ID AS THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVE. SOME TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ID THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FINAL
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP LINGERS IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS SAT MORN...THEN ALL AREAS DRY OUT BY AFTERNOON.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THRU MON. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE MODELS ARE DROPPING A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWN
FROM CANADA OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN BORDERS. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALSO...LOOK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO INCREASE SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THOUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.  CURRENTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE PIH-IDA AREAS NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STEADILY INCREASING WINDS FOR TOMORROW.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING WITH TWO ROUNDS TO FOCUS ON...THE FIRST
BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z AND THE SECOND BEGINNING NEAR 01Z AND LEAVING
OUR AREA NEAR 06Z. PETERSON/WYATT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL HELP
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL
TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR BREEZY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT SUNNY...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RETURN OF NORMAL
SEASON HUMIDITIES. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-413-425-
427.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
526 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

IDZ019>021-023-150015-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS ID-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ID-
526 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...WINDS OVER 40 MPH FOR NORTHERN BINGHAM...JEFFERSON...
CLARK...WESTERN FREMONT...NORTHWESTERN BONNEVILLE AND MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 525 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR IS TRACKING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST
OF MONIDA TO NEAR ROBERTS TO ROSE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IDAHO FALLS...REXBURG...RIGBY...DUBOIS...TERRETON...RIRIE
RESERVOIR...IDMON...GOSHEN...LORENZO...AMMON...SHELLEY...IONA...SUGAR
CITY...UCON...MENAN...TETON...RIRIE...ROBERTS...FIRTH AND LEWISVILLE.

LAT...LON 4368 11157 4325 11168 4328 11274 4448 11247
      4445 11239 4454 11235 4457 11225 4454 11222
      4454 11214 4452 11210 4456 11189 4456 11187
      4451 11183 4456 11168 4456 11159 4454 11147
      4459 11152 4463 11150 4464 11152 4467 11143
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 271DEG 37KT 4456 11217 4375 11207 4327 11230

JKEYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
549 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW CAMAS             44.00N 112.23W
08/14/2015  M57 MPH          JEFFERSON          ID   MESONET

            HAMER INL SITE.

&&

JKEYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
551 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNE DUBOIS            44.24N 112.17W
08/14/2015  M57 MPH          CLARK              ID   MESONET

            DUBOIS INL SITE.

&&

JKEYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
620 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

IDZ019-150100-
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ID-
620 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARK...FREMONT...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTHERN TETON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 618 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF HENRYS LAKE TO NEAR CHESTER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
BEHIND THE MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY AROUND ISLAND PARK AND
HENRYS LAKE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHTON...MARYSVILLE...HENRYS LAKE...PARKER...DRUMMOND...ST ANTHONY...
KILGORE...ISLAND PARK VILLAGE...CHESTER...ASHTON RESERVOIR...PONDS
LODGE...LAST CHANCE...ISLAND PARK RESERVOIR...MACKS INN...SHOTGUN
VILLAGE...WARM RIVER...ASHTON HILL...SAINT ANTHONY SAND DUNES...RED
ROCK PASS AND SHERIDAN RESERVOIR.

LAT...LON 4395 11191 4456 11189 4451 11183 4456 11168
      4454 11147 4459 11152 4464 11152 4467 11147
      4470 11149 4471 11142 4476 11139 4473 11132
      4465 11128 4462 11122 4458 11123 4457 11118
      4449 11109 4413 11109 4412 11105 4389 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 254DEG 22KT 4466 11127 4397 11160

JKEYES

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