Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
216 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA
COAST IS MOVING INTO OR THIS AFTN...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES IS BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL GETTING A GOOD FLOW
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ID...AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
SCEN ID AS THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVE. SOME TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ID THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FINAL
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP LINGERS IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS SAT MORN...THEN ALL AREAS DRY OUT BY AFTERNOON.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THRU MON. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE MODELS ARE DROPPING A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWN
FROM CANADA OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN BORDERS. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALSO...LOOK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO INCREASE SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THOUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.  CURRENTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE PIH-IDA AREAS NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH
STEADILY INCREASING WINDS FOR TOMORROW.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING WITH TWO ROUNDS TO FOCUS ON...THE FIRST
BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z AND THE SECOND BEGINNING NEAR 01Z AND LEAVING
OUR AREA NEAR 06Z. PETERSON/WYATT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL HELP
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL
TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR BREEZY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT SUNNY...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RETURN OF NORMAL
SEASON HUMIDITIES. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-413-425-
427.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
229 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

IDZ017-031-142115-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION ID-
229 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

AT 227 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF RICHFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAILEY...LITTLE WOOD RESERVOIR...PICABO...BELLEVUE...GANNETT AND
SHOSHONE ICE CAVES.

LAT...LON 4320 11439 4320 11438 4326 11438 4353 11431
      4346 11392 4304 11418 4309 11442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 194DEG 23KT 4315 11428

NP/HEDGES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
252 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

IDZ017-031-142130-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION ID-
252 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AFFECTING NORTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN AND CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 251 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CAREY...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAREY.

LAT...LON 4313 11393 4317 11406 4360 11400 4347 11367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 196DEG 44KT 4327 11397

NP/HEDGES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
353 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     CRATERS OF MOON         43.42N 113.53W
08/14/2015  M58 MPH          BUTTE              ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            CRATERS OF THE MOON INL SITE.

&&

JKEYES