Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
204 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASSIA COUNTY AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ON ANY STORMS OVER THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN...BUT FELT THAT MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS MIGHT
CARRY A CELL INTO THAT AREA. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVANCING INTO
CALIFORNIA WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INTO IDAHO OVER NIGHT
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE IS SUPPORTED BY
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS WHICH SUPPORTS
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...SOME WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
AND SOME MODERATE HAIL. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS...INCLUDING THE SNAKE PLAIN LOOK TO BE THE FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY. THURSDAY WILL BE A STORM FREE DAY...BUT THAT DOES NOT LAST
LONG. THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST COMES IN
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTH FROM MEXICO AND THAT COULD LAST INTO SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
ON...MODELS PLACE THIS AREA BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MONSOON MOISTURE OVER UTAH...COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT ON WHICH WAY THE PATTERN COULD SHIFT
BUT THE SITUATION LOOKS MORE DRY THAN NOT WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN ONCE AGAIN INCHING TOWARDS 90F. RS

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS. THROUGH TONIGHT...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS WHICH MEANS A CONTINUATION OF -TSRA/-SHRA THROUGH
THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH FARTHER EAST THERE SHOULD BE ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
AS THE STORM SWINGS OVER THE STATE TOMORROW...COVERAGE WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST. STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OVER 40KTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...WITH
WEDNESDAY BEING THE BIGGEST RISK DAY FOR THE HAIL AND WIND
POTENTIAL. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MORE WESTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM MOVES
OVERHEAD. GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER ZONE 427 AND POSSIBLY THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE A BIT
OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED IN THOSE AREAS. WE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 427 FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED COVERAGE OR GREATER WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW. WE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR REMAINING CRITICAL AREAS
IN ZONES 410...413 AND 425 FROM 9AM - 9PM TOMORROW. WITH STRONGER
CELLS...EXPECT WINDS TO NEAR 50MPH ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. THE BIGGER RISK DAY FOR HAIL AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOMORROW BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR TODAY EITHER. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND.  KEYES

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ410-413-
425.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ427.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
441 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

IDZ019-020-032-042330-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-LOST RIVER/PASHIMEROI ID-
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ID-
441 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AFFECTING NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND NORTHEASTERN BUTTE COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

AT 441 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTHWEST INL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMER...CAMAS REFUGE AND MONTEVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4394 11294 4412 11294 4416 11219 4389 11220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 270DEG 29KT 4403 11284

JKEYES

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