Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
134 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. STORM PREDICTION
CENTER EXPECTS TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...IS
IN A MARGINAL AREA. SOME EASTERN COUNTIES ARE IN SLIGHT RISK.

THE LOW GENERATING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BRINGING WITH IT
THE UNSTABLE AIR IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN UT AND WILL PASS
CLOSELY BY AS IT SHIFTS INTO WY AND CO. CAPE EVEN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE GFS IS REGISTERING LARGE PLACES ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE NAM HAD CAPE AS LARGE AS 3600 J/KG. MAIN FOCUS
IS PLACES SOUTH OF IDAHO FALLS AND EAST OF AMERICAN FALLS. SOME
MORNING CONVECTION AT AROUND 15/0800 MDT PRODUCED A GUST TO 46KT
IN THE BEAR LAKE BASIN.

BY TUE AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD AND PUSH THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY AREA MORE INTO
MONTANA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LIMITED TO THE ID-MT BORDER
REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE STABLE AND DRY
WEST- SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN A QUIET PERIOD FOR WED
AND THU AFTERNOONS/EVES. LOOK FOR WARMING AS SKIES CLEAR AND THE
WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES NORTHWARD. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...DO NOT FORSEE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. THE STRONG RIDGING
WILL MEAN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES WITH A TROUGH ON FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME MOUNTAIN AND
HIGHLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO MAJOR FRONT EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND POINTS SOUTH. EVEN FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO STRONG WIND POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRI TROUGH...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

MESSICK

&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE LAST
AIRPORT THAT COULD SEE SHOWERS WILL BE KIDA AND THE RISK FOR THAT
SHOULD END AROUND 8-9Z. WINDS OVER 40KTS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH STORMS. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN IDAHO. KPIH AND KBYI
SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST VCTS FOR KSUN AND KIDA.
AGAIN...WINDS OVER 40KTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MUCH SMALLER...BUT NOT NECESSARILY ZERO.
KEYES

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS THE REGION...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER 0.10
INCHES IS LOWER OVERALL BUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OVER THAT ARE
POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT...THE PATTERN SHIFTS NORTHWARD A BIT MORE. THAT
MEANS THE BULK OF THE STORM TRACK REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...EXCEPT
FOR OCCASIONAL CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER. FARTHER SOUTH...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF DRYING THINGS OUT.  KEYES

&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
255 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             3 WSW VICTOR            43.59N 111.18W
06/15/2015  M0.50 INCH       TETON              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

&&

GWICKLUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
305 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             5 S DRIGGS              43.65N 111.11W
06/15/2015  M0.25 INCH       TETON              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL HAIL AND WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

GWICKLUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
319 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             5 N PORTNEUF GAP        42.87N 112.34W
06/15/2015  M0.25 INCH       BANNOCK            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN IN FIRST 5 MINUTES AND 0.20 INCHES IN 10 MINUTES.

&&

GWICKLUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
346 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

IDZ017-022-152245-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ID-
346 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

...HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AFFECTING EASTERN
CASSIA COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 345 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELBA TO 9 MILES SOUTH
OF ALMO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MALTA...ALBION...ELBA...ALMO...YALE REST AREA...BRIDGE...IDAHOME...MT
HARRISON AND EASTERN CITY OF ROCKS.

LAT...LON 4233 11366 4263 11333 4227 11309 4202 11316
      4200 11320 4199 11369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 220DEG 25KT 4228 11358 4196 11364

DMH

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