Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
126 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ARE DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE
700MB TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY JUST BELOW LAKE
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS AREAWIDE ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WEST AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC COAST DEEPENS AND CLOSES CENTER OFF CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH TO NEAR SAN
DIEGO FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. GFS WAVERING SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM
ANDRES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS TO SEE AN
INCREASE BY SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PRECIP EACH DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...ACTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS BETWEEN SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO AND STRETCHING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO CLEAR AND CONTRIBUTING
TO ACTIVE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT AT MID AFTERNOON FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. STILL ANTICIPATING MVFR OR IFR
WITHIN ACTIVE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTIVE THREAT
AS PASSED EAST IDAHO WILL RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1023 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

IDZ018-031-011730-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS ID-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION ID-
1023 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

...HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN BLAINE AND WEST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM
MDT...

AT 1023 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTH OF STANLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANLEY...SUNBEAM...CAPE HORN AREA...REDFISH LAKE AND BONANZA.

LAT...LON 4446 11455 4399 11480 4400 11498 4402 11500
      4402 11503 4403 11505 4406 11505 4409 11500
      4410 11502 4412 11505 4413 11502 4415 11502
      4416 11503 4416 11506 4418 11508 4417 11511
      4418 11512 4450 11523
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 184DEG 24KT 4408 11493

DMH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

IDZ018-032-012000-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS ID-LOST RIVER/PASHIMEROI ID-
1257 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

...HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AFFECTING NORTH
CENTRAL BUTTE AND SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

AT 1257 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF GROUSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MACKAY...MACKAY RESERVOIR...DARLINGTON AND COPPER BASIN AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4365 11371 4378 11388 4424 11352 4390 11308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 227DEG 26KT 4378 11372

DMH