Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
100 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND MAINLY BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONTAINED TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
NAM AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW. BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCE...THE GFS HAS MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION THAN THE NAM. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE GFS WHICH SEEMS
MORE CONSISTENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THE PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT THOUGH AS THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR EVERYTHING
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. FOR TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION. ALL OF THEM HOLD THE LOW ACROSS THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE/EASTERN WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF A
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH IS DIFFERENT. THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT
PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL STILL BE STORMY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT STORM WILL INCH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WHAT THAT MEANS IS...MORE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
EASTERN IDAHO. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR WORKING UP
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THAT COULD DRY OUT THOSE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH ALL
THIS MOISTURE AROUND FROM RECENT RAINY DAYS THE EXTRA SUN COULD FUEL
STRONGER STORMS ALSO. WE DID REDUCE THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BUT
THAT MIGHT NOT END UP BEING A SWING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL THAT
SPELL AN END TO ALL OF THIS RAIN? LIKELY NOT A COMPLETE END AS THE
MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP. IT MAY END UP
STORMY...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LINGERS AROUND KIDA AND KPIH. ELSEWHERE...WE ARE SEEING SOME HEATING
THAT IS FUELING REDEVELOPMENT. ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE -SHRA VCTS IN
THE TAF UNTIL SUNSET. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TRY AND DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT TOTALLY. WE KEPT VCSH GOING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE'VE SEE SOME LINGER MVFR
CEILINGS WHERE WE HAD GOOD RAIN THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY AIRPORTS THAT MIGHT SEE IT
WOULD BE KIDA AND KPIH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
138 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IDZ020-232015-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
138 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...DIME SIZE HAIL AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND WESTERN
MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 137 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MENAN...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MENAN...ROBERTS AND LEWISVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
PONDING OF ROADS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4380 11208 4374 11190 4363 11197 4363 11219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 020DEG 11KT 4372 11201

VALLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
151 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     HAIL             2 N MENAN               43.75N 111.99W
05/23/2015  E0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

DPHELPS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
318 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IDZ020-021-023-232245-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS ID-
318 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CENTRAL BINGHAM...NORTHWESTERN BANNOCK...NORTH CENTRAL BONNEVILLE
AND NORTHEASTERN POWER COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 314 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AMMON...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF
SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.  PERSONS LOCATED IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IF OUTSIDE.

THIS STORM COULD REACH THE  POCATELLO AREA AROUND 445 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IDAHO FALLS...POCATELLO...BLACKFOOT...GOSHEN...EASTERN AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR...CHUBBUCK...AMMON...SHELLEY...INKOM...FIRTH...FORT HALL
BUFFALO LODGE...FORT HALL LINCOLN CREEK LODGE...FORT HALL TOWNSITE...
FORT HALL MOUNT PUTNAM...FORT HALL PUTNAM LODGE...ROSE...FORT HALL
EAGLE LODGE...POCATELLO AIRPORT...GROVELAND AND BASALT.

LAT...LON 4352 11206 4345 11183 4280 11223 4295 11268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 022DEG 21KT 4342 11199

MESSICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
358 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IDZ017-232330-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-
358 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL MINIDOKA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
MDT...

AT 356 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20
MILES NORTHWEST OF MINIDOKA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BRING VERY HEAVY RAINSHOWERS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF
SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING TO SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY AND
WESTERN MINIDOKA COUNTY. IT WILL EXIT THESE COUNTIES...ENTERING
JEROME COUNTY AROUND 600 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIMAMA AND LAIDLAW CORRALS AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4274 11393 4276 11393 4276 11402 4277 11405
      4281 11405 4281 11420 4282 11425 4310 11374
      4297 11358 4269 11372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 048DEG 12KT 4299 11374

MESSICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
443 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IDZ017-020-021-232330-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
443 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WESTERN BINGHAM...NORTHWESTERN BANNOCK...SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTTE...WESTERN BONNEVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL POWER
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 440 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NORTHWEST INL TO SOUTHEAST INL TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF TABER...AND
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINSHOWERS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF
SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. PERSONS OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. THE STORM WILL REACH TABER AREA BY 500
PM...AND THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOI AROUND 530 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...ABERDEEN...ATOMIC CITY...SOUTHWEST INL...
SPRINGFIELD...CENTRAL INL...TABER...ROCKFORD...MORELAND...PINGREE...
SOUTHEAST INL...POCATELLO AIRPORT...BIG SOUTHERN BUTTE...STERLING AND
EAST BUTTE.

LAT...LON 4332 11335 4305 11300 4282 11266 4338 11236
      4357 11263 4378 11291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 028DEG 30KT 4374 11284 4358 11262 4345 11243

MESSICK