Winter Weather Advisory 9, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

288 
WWUS41 KPHI 270851
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT PARTS OF NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...

.A DEEP COASTAL STORM OFFSHORE OF NEW JERSEY HAS PASSED FURTHER
EAST THAN EARLIER FORECASTED. MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
PARTS OF NEW JERSEY WERE SPARED THE HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A GOOD
DEAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF EARLIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

NJZ012>014-020-026-271700-
/O.CAN.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150127T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150127T2000Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND
351 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...MUCH
  OF WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

* TIMING...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE THIS MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...
  RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS
  MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR
VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...
MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU AND MAKE SURE YOUR
CELL PHONE IS FULLY CHARGED. IF YOU GET STRANDED... STAY WITH
YOUR VEHICLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

NJZ019-027-271700-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150127T2000Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-150127T1700Z/
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
351 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...MUCH
  OF WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* TIMING...THIS MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND
  DRIFTING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LOCALLY LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ022-271000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150127T2000Z/
ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAMMONTON
351 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

A FEW AREAS OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE. 

$$

NJZ016-017-021-023-024-PAZ054-061-271000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-150127T2000Z/
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CUMBERLAND-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
CARBON-LEHIGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...MILLVILLE...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...JIM THORPE...ALLENTOWN
351 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

A FEW AREAS OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE. 

$$

NJZ001-007>010-015-025-271700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150127T2000Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...TRENTON...ATLANTIC CITY
351 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...MOST OF
  WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AT TIMES AND AREAS OF
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED... AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.

&&

$$

NJZ018-PAZ055-062-071-103>106-271700-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-150127T1700Z/
CAMDEN-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...STROUDSBURG...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON...PHILADELPHIA...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...
NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...
DOYLESTOWN
351 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5
  INCHES...MUCH OF WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AT TIMES AND AREAS OF 
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

731 
WWUS41 KPHI 271653
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION...

NJZ001-007>010-015-272000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150127T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.150127T1653Z-150127T2000Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...TRENTON
1153 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELED.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...MOST
  OF WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
  AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND
  AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AT TIMES AND AREAS OF 
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES..ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ018-019-027-PAZ055-062-071-103>106-271800-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-150127T1700Z/
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-MONROE-
NORTHAMPTON-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-
UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...WHARTON STATE FOREST...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...PHILADELPHIA...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
1153 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT SNOW IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION. WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
EXISTING ACCUMULATIONS.

$$

NJZ012>014-020-025-026-272000-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150127T2000Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
JACKSON...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND
1153 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE 
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...MUCH OF
  WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

* TIMING...NOW INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS... 
  RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS 
  MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH
ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE TROUGH ALOFT HAS BECOME FULLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX HAS
ROUNDED THE BASE AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS, THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BEGINNING TO FILL IN FROM EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS,
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LONG ISLAND, AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST, AND IS
CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF PIVOTING AND MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING
AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOWFALL SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONG
OMEGAS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.

WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM
EARLIER TODAY AS WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN INTO THE HEAVIEST SNOW PERIOD
YET. HOWEVER, THE LATEST NAM HAS CUT BACK ON ITS SNOW TOTALS AND
IS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. SO WE HAVE CUT BACK TOTALS
SOME ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE WILL WAIT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES UNTIL
WE GET MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE STORM AND HAVE ALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND DECREASING SOUTH AND WEST FROM THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC LOW WILL REACH ITS DEEPEST POINT SOMETIME
AROUND 12Z TO 15Z TUESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF CAPE COD OR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND. SOME WRAP-AROUND BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE CONTINUING OVER NRN NJ FOR A WHILE IN THE MORNING BUT WILL
START TO WEAKEN AND/OR MOVE NEWD BY MID-DAY. A FEW MORE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING BUT NOT MUCH ELSE IN THE
AFTERNOON. POPS ON TUES GO FROM CATEGORICAL IN THE MORNING TO NONE
OR SLGT CHC IN THE LATE AFTN...DECREASING FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM
PULLS AWAY. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE EVEN
THOUGH PRECIP HAS ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB. THE
TROF ITSELF LOOKED SLIGHTLY BROADER, NOT AS SHARP, BUT ALREADY WAS
TAKING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. THERMALLY 850MB AND 925MB IT WAS A
MIXTURE OF GFS AND WRF-NMMB.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY A
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EVEN LOOKING AT THE SLOWEST MODELING SOLUTIONS,
THEY BARELY HAVE ANY MEASURABLE IN OUR CWA. THE FASTER CAN
GGEM/UKMET/GFS SNOW IS LONG GONE. WE REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR FAR
NERN CWA AND POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO
THE POCONOS. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING, BUT WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND BELOW ZERO NORTHWESTERN
CWA. BECAUSE OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER, WE SIDED WITH THE COLDER
DATASETS, CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

A QUIETER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING CLOSER TO OUR
AREA. THE PREDICTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. EVEN SO, WE LIKELY WILL NOT REACH
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE BULK OF OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A VERY COLD NIGHT. HOW COLD WILL DEPEND UPON
HOW QUICKLY CLOUDINESS STARTS MOVING ACROSS FROM THE NEXT CLIPPER
LIKE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT REGARDLESS. WE ARE COLDER THAN
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DATASETS WITH MIN TEMPS AND IN REALITY MAY
NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.

DECREASING SUNSHINE AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES. THERE IS GOOD MODELING
CONSENSUS OF MID LEVEL OMEGA AND QVEC CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING BY 00Z. GIVEN THAT THE WAA PHASE LIKES TO SNEAK IN EARLY,
WE KEPT PCPN CHANCES IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY. PTYPE SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY SNOW. SOME MIXING BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
MIGHT OCCUR FAR SE.

THE BULK OF THE CLIPPER PCPN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT NIGHT. ASSUMING
IT DOES NOT ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE, ITS APPEARING TO
BE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA TYPE EVENT SNOW. PCPN SHOULD
END BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WINDIER DAY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT.

COLDER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVES EASTWARD. WE THEN REPEAT THE PROCESS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE AND
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT. THIS ONE COULD TAP GULFMEX MOISTURE
AND THUS BE A SNOWIER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING**

TONIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...CONDITIONS VARY FROM SITE TO SITE THIS
EVENING AS SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. AS
THE SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME THE NORM AT ALL SITES. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH NJ AND THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
SNOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTH- NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES. AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

REST OF TUESDAY...AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
AN ISSUE, THOUGH, AS WINDS BACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH
CONTINUED GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. SOME LATE-DAY
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED, BUT TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN LIKELY
BECOMING MVFR OR IFR IN SNOW WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS IS. WINDS ARE FCST TO
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DEEPENS TO AROUND 975 MB BY 1200Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST TO NEAR 50 KT NORTH OF CAPE MAY AND 40 TO 45 KT
SOUTH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT OR HIGHER TONIGHT  WITH THE NE
FETCH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY BUT CONDS
WILL REMAIN QUITE ROUGH. ALSO...VSBY WILL BE VERY POOR AT TIME
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE TRANSCENDING FROM GALES INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A SCA SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER LOW. WE MIGHT COME CLOSE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD START DECREASING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO CHANGE FOR THE COASTAL FLOODING HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS FORECAST.
STILL RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE UPPER END OF MINOR TO THE
LOWER END OF MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH
TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, SO KEPT THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AS IS.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE. BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE ON THE UPPER BAY, WINDS
SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY, LIMITING TIDAL DEPARTURES.
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO ISSUE ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD (VULNERABLE) DAILY SNOW FALL FOR OUR LONG TERM CLIMATE
SITES. TUESDAY 1/27.

ACY 4.0 1946
PHL 4.1 1941
ILG 2.9 2004
ABE 8.0 1897

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     103>106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ060-101-
     102.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GIGI
NEAR TERM...AMC/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ070-071-103>106-272100-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012>014-020-026-272100-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BLIZZARD WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BLIZZARD WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ021>025-027-272100-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-PAZ060-101-102-272100-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-BERKS-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ054-055-061-062-272100-
CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-272100-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>453-272100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

A NORTHWEST GALE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-454-455-272100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

THE NEXT NORTHWEST GALE EVENT MIGHT OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.