Winter Weather Advisory 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

897 
WWUS41 KPHI 030913
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
413 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-031715-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.150103T1400Z-150103T2300Z/
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
413 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN ONE INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION
  OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* LOCATIONS...BERKS, LEHIGH, AND NORTHAMPTON IN PENNSYLVANIA AND
  WARREN COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
  THIS MORNING. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
  SLEET DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW AND SLEET IS
  ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATER
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
  FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITY...DROPPING TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU
WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE REGION TODAY.

&&

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-031715-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.150103T1700Z-150104T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
413 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
  THIS MORNING. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
  SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW AND SLEET IS ANTICIPATED TO
  TRANSITION TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY THIS EVENING. POCKETS OF
  BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
  HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE
  OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
  FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITY...DROPPING TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU
WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

$$

HEAVENER/JRK

169 
WWUS41 KPHI 031520
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1020 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-032330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.150103T1700Z-150104T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1020 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND 
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY
  THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
  SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW AND SLEET IS ANTICIPATED TO
  TRANSITION TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY THIS EVENING. POCKETS OF
  BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
  HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE
  OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS 
  FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITY...DROPPING TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU
WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

$$

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-032300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T2300Z/
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
1020 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN ONE INCH. ICE 
  ACCUMULATION OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* LOCATIONS...BERKS... LEHIGH... AND NORTHAMPTON IN PENNSYLVANIA 
  AND WARREN COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY
  THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
  SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW AND SLEET IS
  ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE
  AFTERNOON AND JUST RAIN BY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS 
  FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITY...DROPPING TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU
WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE REGION TODAY.

&&

$$

063 
WWUS41 KPHI 032032
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...

PAZ060-032145-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T2300Z/
BERKS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...READING
332 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF BERKS COUNTY HAVE NOW RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING, WITH LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-040300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150104T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
332 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND 
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.

* TIMING...SLEET MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
  TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. POCKETS OF BELOW
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
  BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
  THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU
WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

$$

NJZ007-PAZ061-062-032300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T2300Z/
WARREN-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
332 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH MAINLY IN THE
  HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* LOCATIONS...LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA...AND
  WARREN COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET IS ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN
  AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND JUST RAIN BY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
  FROM THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU
WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE REGION TODAY.

&&

$$

560 
WWUS41 KPHI 032250
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
550 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

NJZ007-PAZ061-062-040000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T2300Z/
WARREN-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
550 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS, SO
PRECIPITATION WHICH FALLS DURING THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-040300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150104T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
550 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND 
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.

* TIMING...SLEET MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION 
  TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING. POCKETS OF BELOW 
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS 
  BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS 
  THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SNOW... SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU
WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

$$

122 
WWUS41 KPHI 040211
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015


NJZ001-PAZ054-055-040315-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150104T0300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
911 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND MOST PLACES ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING. WHILE
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
NOW AND MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE JUST PLAIN RAIN. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1142 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE BY OUR AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THEN TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING, THEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION LATER MONDAY WITH A
CLIPPER AND ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PRECIP-FREE DAY. THE LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU TO THE NORTH COULD
ERODE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD ADVANCE A BIT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED IN BETWEEN. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS IN THE GRIDS LOOK ON
TARGET WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING
WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANALYZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION IS POSITIONED IN ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS.

TODAY'S SENSIBLE WX SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE SOURCE REGION OF
THE CP AIR VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CIRRUS
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTING OVERHEAD BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE DENSE ENOUGH IN MOST LOCATIONS TO HAVE MUCH
AFFECT ON HEATING. FORECAST PREFERENCE FOR MAX TEMPS WAS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON YESTERDAY'S OBSERVED HIGHS. FORECAST 925 MB
TEMPS ARE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TODAY AT 18Z COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO, TRANSLATING TO HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. FORECAST MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE TEENS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THICKER HI CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD SPREAD INTO
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN NJ/SOUTHEAST PA
OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS
INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A LARGER TROUGH SETTLES
BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS PATTERN
WILL DELIVER MUCH COLDER AIR TO OUR REGION, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
/LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT/ WARM-UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS TO OUR WEST. A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THEN ARRIVES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN MOSTLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND AMPLIFIES SOME.
THIS WILL TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO START WILL GIVE WAY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST, IT STILL
APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY LOW MAY FORM NEAR OUR COAST OR TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NEAR THE NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT AND A
POSSIBLE INCOMING OCCLUSION. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
AIR SURGING NORTHWARD, AS THE WAA IS DRIVEN BY A LOW-LEVEL JET ON
THE ORDER OF 50-70 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL CHILLY AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD HOLD FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LEHIGH VALLEY ON NORTHWARD.
THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY LIFTING NORTH FASTER ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN, WHILE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 IT GETS
HUNG UP FOR A TIME AS FALLING PRECIPITATION ADDS TO A LOW-LEVEL
STABLE LAYER FOR A BIT LONGER.

AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND WAA INCREASES LATER SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE ROBUST
WARMING ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE
INITIAL DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR GETS ERODED. HOWEVER, AN EXAMINATION OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY AREA TO THE POCONOS
SHOWS GENERALLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THAT SNOW AND SLEET
WILL OCCUR BEFORE GOING OVER TO SOME FREEZING RAIN THEN RAIN. THIS
MAY OCCUR AS A BURST OF SNOW AND SLEET AS THE WAA SURGE ARRIVES
WITHIN JUST COLD AND DRY ENOUGH AIR IN PLACE. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
BIT OF SLEET AT THE ONSET DOWN TO THE PHILADELPHIA METRO IF ENOUGH
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IS PRESENT BEFORE THE WARMING OVERTAKES THE AREA.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ROBUST WARMING AS EVEN
THE +10C AIR IN THE 800-900 MB LAYER IS DRIVEN TO AND NORTH OF THE
POCONOS. THIS POINTS TO LIGHT FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
BEFORE ALL RAIN OCCURS. OVERALL, WE PAINTED IN A COATING TO UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW/SLEET FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY AREA TO THE POCONOS AND TO
FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AND UP TO AN TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
/THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS/. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY ATTM AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
ALSO WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER. A
MENTION REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OVERALL, THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE HAZARD IS FREEZING RAIN. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT WITH THE STRONG WAA SURGE, THE SNOW AND SLEET DURATION
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES WERE INDICATED TO RISE DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING SUNDAY AND
ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO INFILTRATE INLAND WITH THE FLOW TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS MAY BE DELAYED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. WHILE WAA
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD SIGNIFICANT WARMING, THE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION MAY HOLD LONGER TO NOT ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO
MIX DOWN ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS A BUST POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS A RESULT. FOR NOW, WE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND WITH SOME TWEAKS. OTHERWISE, THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD TAPER
TO SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY AS THE MAIN WAA SURGE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, THE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS EVEN SOME HINTS THAT A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS THEN RAPIDLY END THROUGH THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE CAA THEN KICKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
SETTLING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADING OUR AREA. WHILE
SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE POCONOS ESPECIALLY
MONDAY, THE REST OF THE AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE DRY. A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT TIED TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY COLD FOR SNOW,
BUT ALSO IT WILL BE RATHER DRY. THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE, HOWEVER THERE IS THE CHC FOR SOME SNOW AND IF
IT WERE TO SNOW IT WILL BE THE FLUFFY VARIETY. WE DID RAISE POPS A
BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH OUR AREA REMAINING UNDER A RATHER COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS MAKING IT TOWARD
THE POCONOS, HOWEVER THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT ARE UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL, A RATHER COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD VEER, BECOMING WESTERLY BETWEEN ABOUT 14Z AND 16Z. WIND GUSTS
OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND DAYTIME
MIXING WANES. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, THEN TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME AT KRDG AND KABE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST, TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY, THEN BECOMING
WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD ACCOMPANY IT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KPHL. ANY SNOW COULD
RESULT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME. OUR
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA'S HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR ANZ452-453. THEY'VE BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 4 PM FOR ANZ450-451.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCA HEADLINES REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
ENDING TIME FOR THE SCA IS 4 AM FOR COASTAL WATERS OFF DE AND NOON
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OFF NJ. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY, WHICH WAS THE BASIS OF THE TIERED
ENDING TIMES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF HAVING TO EXTEND THE SCA FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST MARINE ZONE OR
TWO (ANZ450/451) BY A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE THE
CALL LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE,
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED SEAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MUCH WARMER AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY
WILL KEEP MIXING LESS OVER THE WATER. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE GUSTS
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES ALONG THE MOUTH
OF THE DELAWARE BAY AT LOW TIDE AROUND MIDDAY. TIDAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LOW BIAS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF LOW TIDES
CYCLES, SO CONFIDENCE IN A BLOW OUT TIDE IS LOW.

WINDS ON THE BAY HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOT FUNNELING OUT OF THE BAY
(I.E. A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION). THEREFORE, HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO
ISSUE A LOW WATER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/KLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-030900-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
400 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PERIOD SNOW AND SLEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING, THEN
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
RISE. WHILE THE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007>009-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-030900-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
400 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY CHANGE TO
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES RISE. THE GREATEST CHANCE
IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE ANY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT, SLIPPERY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-
106-030900-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
400 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-030900-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
400 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.