Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TONIGHT, A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP INTO THE REGION, MOVING OFF SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDER CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO NORTHERN
DE AT MID-MORNING, AND WE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WITH THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ADDITIONAL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NJ. HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS USING THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS, AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD BY A DEGREE OR SO AFTER A CHECK
OF THIS MORNING'S REGIONAL SOUNDINGS.

OTHERWISE, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST/MOST
INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PASSING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND COLD POOL TIED TO CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE.

PWATS SURGE UPWARDS OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM
SECTOR. LEE SURFACE TROUGH COMING THROUGH NORTHERN MARYLAND WILL ACT
AS THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES, WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH TO
OUR NORTH. MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1200J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK, ON
THE ORDER OF 20 KNOTS OR SO. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
DELMARVA AND POINTS NORTH INTO THE PHILLY METRO AREA...MUCH LIKE HOW
THE EVENTS UNFOLDED LAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW THINGS WE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT FOR THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY A
SEVERE WIND THREAT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND WHERE
THE HOTSPOTS WOULD BE.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS
THE PRIME TARGET GIVEN THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO DESTABILIZE
THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. A BETTER
FOCUS FOR INITIATION ALONG A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER BULK SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A RATHER JUICY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE ON
THE ORDER OF 6C/KM, SO DECENT WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DRY ADIABATIC...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE GREATER
THREAT THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL BUT WITH THE WET
BULB ZERO BEING NEARLY RIGHT AT THE FREEZING LEVEL WOULD THINK HAIL
WOULD BE A LESSER THREAT.

IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE OR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND HIGHER PWATS, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL LIFT,
AFTER MOST OF THE MLCAPE IS USED UP. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
WOULD BE THE BETTER SPOTS FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES WE HAVE LOWER FFG NUMBERS AND A BETTER QPF SIGNAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES, THE SANDIER SOIL
TYPICALLY KEEPS FFG HIGHER WITH LESS OF A QPF SIGNAL. ITS A TOUGH
CALL AS WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL SCENARIOS PAINT A BETTER QPF SIGNAL
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ONLY TO HAVE THE EASTERN ZONES GET ROCKED
BY TRAINING CELLS...ANYONE REMEMBER AUGUST 12-13, 2014? FOR THE TIME
BEING WE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THIS SETUP PRODUCING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE, SMALL STREAM FLOODING SO WE
FOREGO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT WE CAN ADDRESS THE NEED OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE EVENING TIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING... COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION, BRINGING ONE LAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT THE HYDRO CONCERNS TO BE DECREASING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, AS THERE APPEARS TO ONLY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE
OCCURRING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LIMITED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AN INCREASING
DOWNBURST THREAT WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. AS FAR AS TIMING OF THE FRONT, THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A BIT
OF A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z MODELS. THEREFORE, TRENDED TEMPS
AND POPS TO A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...APPEAR TO BE QUITE NICE WEATHER WISE AS A
COOLER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEAVING US
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS BACK TO
A RATHER FAST ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH, COULD HAVE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NOT TO MENTION A PAIR OF SURFACE FRONTS
CROSS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
PATTERN HOWEVER, THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AND RUN TO RUN WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. THEREFORE,
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER END CHANCES
FOR PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
AROUND THIS MORNING, AIDED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND FINALLY
THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS WILL REMAINS AROUND 5KFT BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH
INCREASED HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR TERMINALS AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME, AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW CEILINGS TO REBOUND BACK TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...STARTING MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR WITH SHRA AND TSRA, BUT
IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR, BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA OR TSRA

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA ARE LIKELY ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WIT ANY
STORMS WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE FULL MOON TOMORROW, EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE OF ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FIRST, WITH LIMITED ON SHORE FLOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TOMORROW, TIDES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AGAIN ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER ON SHORE COMPONENT.
AS SUCH, THE HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAY
BE RIGHT AT MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS, AND THUS THE TIDE GUIDANCE, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
TIDE: AFTER THE EARLY AFTERNOON LOW TIDE STARTS COMING IN WHICH
HELPS REDUCE RISK FOR MID AND LATE DAY, PROVIDED EVERYONE SWIMS
WITHIN SIGHT OF THE LIFEGUARDS. IE...NO JETTIES AND NO PIERS. BE
SAFE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ COAST SHOULD QUIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN EVERYONE HEATS UP INTO THE 80S MID AFTERNOON ON SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THE NEXT BATCH OF HEAVY CONVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE ALONG THE
COASTS UNTIL TONIGHT?

WATER TEMPS CONTINUE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

OUR LONG BEACH ISLAND OBSERVER AT 10 AM REPORTS A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
RIP CURRENT SITUATION THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT
STILL LOW RISK. LOW DOES NOT MEAN "NO" RISK.

CONTINUING THE FORECAST OF LOW RISK TODAY THOUGH SEAS UP A FOOT
OR SO FROM YDY BUT THE PERIOD IS SHORT...8 SECONDS OR LESS.
ONSHORE WIND TURNS SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINED
WITH THE 2-3 FT SEAS KEEPS THIS A LOW RISK.

WEDNESDAY...LOW RISK AGAIN WITH A 4 FT 8 SECOND SWELL BUT A LIGHT
WEST WIND THAT PERMITS HEATING TO THE COAST BEFORE AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LIKELY HEAVY TSTMS SOMETIME IN THE
AFTN...SLOW MOVERS AND TENDING TO MOVE ESE.

THU...DRY AND NICE.  5 FT 6 SECOND NE SWELL WITH A NNE WIND 10-20
MPH. ENHANCED LOW RISK, POSSIBLE MDT RISK.

FRI...DRY AND VERY NICE. SE ONSHORE WIND 10 MPH. 4 FT 7 SECOND.
STILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW RISK DUE TO THE RESIDUAL NE SWELL.

&&

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG'KLINE 1038A

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-017>020-022-025>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-150800-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-ATLANTIC-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-023-024-150800-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-150800-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 35KT ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       UPPER DEERFIELD TWP     39.48N  75.21W
07/14/2015  M3.34 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   COCORAHS

            BACKYARD POND OVERFLOWING

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SEABROOK FARMS          39.50N  75.22W
07/14/2015  M3.41 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1500577 PHI1500576

FRANCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

NJZ017-018-022-141515-
ATLANTIC-CAMDEN-GLOUCESTER-
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN AND EAST CENTRAL GLOUCESTER COUNTIES...

AT 1048 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MONROE TOWNSHIP...OR
12 MILES NORTH OF VINELAND...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VICTORY LAKES AROUND 1055 AM EDT.
  CHESILHURST AROUND 1110 AM EDT.
  HAMMONTON AROUND 1115 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE COLLINGS LAKES AND
FOLSOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3959 7498 3964 7502 3977 7479 3961 7466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1448Z 249DEG 14KT 3964 7494

DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1054 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

NJZ016-017-021-022-141530-
ATLANTIC-GLOUCESTER-CUMBERLAND-SALEM-
1054 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EAST
CENTRAL SALEM...SOUTHEASTERN GLOUCESTER AND NORTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 1054 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ALLOWAY...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF BRIDGETON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SEABROOK FARMS AROUND 1105 AM EDT.
  ELMER AND OLIVET AROUND 1110 AM EDT.
  ROSENHAYN AND FRANKLINVILLE AROUND 1120 AM EDT.
  VINELAND...BUENA...NEWFIELD...MALAGA AND SOUTH VINELAND AROUND 1130
AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CENTERTON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3957 7535 3963 7531 3964 7492 3941 7501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 283DEG 16KT 3957 7526

DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1117 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

NJZ018-022-027-141545-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-ATLANTIC-CAMDEN-
1117 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN AND SOUTH CENTRAL BURLINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 1116 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HAMMONTON TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF CHESILHURST TO 7 MILES
WEST OF ELWOOD-MAGNOLIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HAMMONTON AROUND 1125 AM EDT.
  ELWOOD-MAGNOLIA AROUND 1140 AM EDT.
  BATSTO AROUND 1145 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE FOLSOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3971 7459 3962 7460 3957 7470 3959 7486
      3967 7486 3969 7477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 275DEG 12KT 3966 7478 3965 7484 3962 7485

DRAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1132 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     FLASH FLOOD      UPPER DEERFIELD TWP     39.48N  75.21W
07/14/2015                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            ROUTE 77 FLOODED AND CLOSED.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       UPPER DEERFIELD TWP     39.48N  75.21W
07/14/2015  M3.34 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   COCORAHS

            BACKYARD POND OVERFLOWING

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SEABROOK FARMS          39.50N  75.22W
07/14/2015  M3.41 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   CO-OP OBSERVER

1113 AM     FLOOD            HAMMONTON               39.65N  74.77W
07/14/2015                   ATLANTIC           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROUTE 73 AT THE ATLANTIC CITY EXPRESSWAY FLOODED. WATER
            AT LEAST 1 FOOT DEEP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1500578 PHI1500577 PHI1500576 PHI1500579

FRANCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1137 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

NJZ016-017-021-022-141600-
ATLANTIC-GLOUCESTER-CUMBERLAND-SALEM-
1137 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EAST CENTRAL SALEM...SOUTHEASTERN GLOUCESTER
AND NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 1136 AM EDT...THE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WAS NEAR OLIVET...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF VINELAND...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS GROUP OF STORMS WILL BE NEAR...  VINELAND AND MALAGA AROUND
1145 AM EDT.  NEWFIELD AROUND 1150 AM EDT.  VICTORY LAKES AROUND
1155 AM EDT.  BUENA AROUND 1200 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CENTERTON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING
CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3952 7518 3957 7518 3965 7497 3948 7487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1536Z 266DEG 19KT 3955 7511

DRAG