Freezing Rain Advisory 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

448 
WWUS41 KPHI 221051
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
551 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...

NJZ008-221200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150222T1100Z/
MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MORRISTOWN
551 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. TRAVEL WILL STILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS AS MANY OF THE UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS
REMAIN COVERED IN SNOW, SLUSH AND ICE ON ROADS.

$$

MDZ008-NJZ007-009-PAZ060>062-101>103-105-221200-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150222T1100Z/
CECIL-WARREN-HUNTERDON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...
READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...
CHALFONT...PERKASIE
551 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. TRAVEL WILL STILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS AS MANY OF THE UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS
REMAIN COVERED IN SNOW, SLUSH AND ICE ON ROADS.

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-221200-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-150222T1100Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
551 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. TRAVEL WILL STILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS AS MANY OF THE UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS
REMAIN COVERED IN SNOW, SLUSH AND ICE ON ROADS.

$$

NJZ010-015-221400-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150222T1400Z/
SOMERSET-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...TRENTON
551 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES HAD ALREADY FALLEN. NO 
  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT 
  IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MORRIS COUNTY. 

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...0.1 TO 0.3 INCH.

* TIMING...POCKETS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY
  THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING.

* IMPACTS...A LAYER OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW AND SLUSH WILL 
  CREATE VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. EVEN AT LOCATIONS WHERE 
  THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...ICE FROM THE 
  FREEZING RAIN THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY WILL NOT MELT ON UNTREATED 
  SURFACE WITH THE GROUND STILL VERY COLD. 

* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ012-PAZ070-071-104-106-221400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150222T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT MD-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-
LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...CHESTERTOWN...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
551 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND 
  AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. 

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES HAD ALREADY FALLEN. NO 
  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. 

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...0.1 TO 0.3 INCH.

* TIMING...POCKETS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY 
  MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...A LAYER OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW AND SLUSH WILL 
  CREATE VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. EVEN AT LOCATIONS WHERE 
  THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...ICE FROM THE 
  FREEZING RAIN THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY WILL NOT MELT ON UNTREATED 
  SURFACE WITH THE GROUND STILL VERY COLD. 

* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

NJZ012>014-016>020-026-027-221400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150222T1400Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
551 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES HAD ALREADY FALLEN WITH THE 
  HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. NO ADDITIONAL 
  SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. 

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...0.1 TO 0.3 INCH.

* TIMING...POCKETS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY 
  MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...A LAYER OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW AND SLUSH WILL 
  CREATE VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. EVEN AT LOCATIONS WHERE 
  THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...ICE FROM THE 
  FREEZING RAIN THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY WILL NOT MELT ON UNTREATED 
  SURFACE WITH THE GROUND STILL VERY COLD. 

* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-NJZ021-022-221400-
/O.CON.KPHI.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150222T1400Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE...MILLVILLE...
HAMMONTON
551 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW 
  JERSEY. 

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER INCH.

* TIMING...POCKETS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY 
  MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MID MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...A LAYER OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW AND SLUSH WILL 
  CREATE VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. EVEN AT LOCATIONS WHERE 
  THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...ICE FROM THE 
  FREEZING RAIN THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY WILL NOT MELT ON UNTREATED 
  SURFACE WITH THE GROUND STILL VERY COLD. 

* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

688 
WWUS41 KPHI 221345
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

DEZ001-MDZ012-PAZ070-071-104-106-221445-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150222T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT MD-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-
LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...CHESTERTOWN...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
845 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END AND TEMPERATURES HAVE EITHER
RISEN ABOVE FREEZING, OR WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UNTREATED ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND PARKING LOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ICY
AND SLUSHY.

$$

NJZ012>014-016>020-026-027-221445-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150222T1400Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
845 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END AND TEMPERATURES HAVE EITHER
RISEN ABOVE FREEZING, OR WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UNTREATED ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND PARKING LOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ICY
AND SLUSHY.

$$

NJZ010-015-221445-
/O.EXP.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150222T1400Z/
SOMERSET-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...TRENTON
845 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UNTREATED ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND PARKING LOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ICY
AND SLUSHY.

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-NJZ021-022-221445-
/O.EXP.KPHI.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150222T1400Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE...MILLVILLE...
HAMMONTON
845 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END AND TEMPERATURES HAVE EITHER
RISEN ABOVE FREEZING, OR WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UNTREATED ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND PARKING LOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ICY
AND SLUSHY.

$$

ROBERTSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, DRAGGING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PULLING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM FOR THE
PHILA METRO AND CENTRAL NJ WAS EXTENDED THRU 6 AM. ROADS ARE STILL
VERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LAYER OF ICE AND SLUSH ON
TOP OF THE SNOW. 1230 AM ASOS AND MESONET SITES REPORT TEMPS
BETWEEN 31F AND 34F WITH RAIN STILL FALLING. EVEN AT LOCATIONS
WHERE THE 2M TEMPERATURE IS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND IT'S
PLAIN, THE ICE FROM THE FREEZING RAIN THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY WILL
NOT MELT ON UNTREATED SURFACES GIVEN HOW COLD THE GROUND IS. THE
LIMITED ROAD SENSOR WX DATA WE HAVE ACCESS TO SHOWS PAVEMENT TEMPS
ARE STILL IN THE 20S. ALSO ADJUSTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD IN
THESE LOCATIONS TO BETWEEN ONE-TENTH AND ONE-QUARTER INCH. ABOUT
0.15 INCHES OF ICE WAS ESTIMATED OUTSIDE OUR WFO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING.
THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS PUSHED UP TO AND PROBABLY A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE DEL VALLEY AS OF 930 PM. PLAIN RAIN ACROSS
SRN DELAWARE WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. WE WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX
FLAGS AS THEY ARE ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

BOTH THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB LOOKED GOOD AT 500MB, FARTHER DOWN THE
WRF LOOKED BETTER AT 850MB AND THE GFS LOOKED BETTER AT 925MB.
MODEL VERIFICATION OF QPF LOOKED BETTER THRU 18Z WITH MORE OF A
CONSENSUS THAN WAS THE CASE EARLIER TODAY.

THERE IS MORE OF A MODELING CONSENSUS OF A ROLL-OVER OF THE
HEAVIEST PCPN ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO SIDE WITH THE LIGHTER
QPF IN THOSE LOCALES, SO THERE WAS A SNOWFALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT ADVISORY/WARNING DISTRIBUTION WAS KEPT THE
SAME. WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MD, THE PHL NWRN SUBURBS INTO THE WESTERN RARITAN VALLEY.
THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT REMAINS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 295 CORRIDOR,
SO WE MADE IT MORE OF A HIGH END ADVISORY.

AS FAR AS FORCING GOES, A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS COINCIDING THE
BEST WITH OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS OVER OUR CWA ATTM. THE MAXIMUM
WARM AIR ADVECTION, EQUIVALENT PTNL RIDGE AND 290K MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS UNDERWAY. AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT WE LOSE THE
WAA/ISENTROPIC FORCING AND HAVE MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET AS WELL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE. PREDICTED FGEN FORCING IS NOT THAT SPECTACULAR
AND OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH COINCIDENT IS NOT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME AND MAINLY SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE PCPN RATES MAY
NOT BE AS ROBUST, THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THRUT
OUR CWA. THIS STARTS TO WEAKEN FROM NW TO SE TOWARD MORNING.

THERMALLY ITS A BEAR, BUT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STILL
PREDICTED TO BRING A WARM NOSE OF ABOVE 0C AIR INTO OUR CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NAM FAVORS 925MB WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE CLOSER TO 850MB. WE SHAVED ABOUT 1C OFF THE GFS WHEN
DECIDING PTYPES. REGARDLESS, THIS BRINGS CHANGEOVER POTENTIAL TO
NON-SNOW INTO THE PHL NWRN SUBURBS INTO THE RARITAN VALLEY. PLACES
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST ANY CHANGEOVER WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE END
AND A MOOT POINT.

AT THE SURFACE, THE RUB REMAINS ABOUT HOW MUCH ABOVE FREEZING AIR
CAN GET DEEP INTO OUR CWA. HERE WE OPTED FOR A MESOSCALE MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH STRUGGLES TO GET IT MUCH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FALL LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT 10PM ITS ALONG I295 AND I195 AND
AT 1 AM WE ARE EDGING IT JUST INTO THE PHL NWRN SUBURBS. WITH WARM
AIR COMING IN ALOFT, THE ICE (FREEZING RAIN) ZONE HAS BEEN LIMITED
CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE LOWEST STAT GUIDANCE RISE. WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION RIDING ALONG PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT, WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA
DOES HAVE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING, OR GREATER ICING WOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STARTING SUNDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE PCPN (WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN) IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95/295 CORRIDOR AND ON THE VERGE OF ENDING.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN OHIO AND MICHIGAN ARE IN THE 20S AND
30S, SO IN SPITE OF THE INITIAL CFP, THE INSITU AIR MASS ON SUNDAY
IS NOT THAT COLD. IN REALITY MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED IN OVER A WEEK.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS SUPPOSE TO REMOVE THE CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO GET
CLOSE TO NORMAL. WE DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS GFS MOS GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL ERODE AND A NEED FOR A
STRONG ENOUGH WIND TO MIX SOME OF THE WARMER AIR DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT AND ALL OF ITS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
PULLED WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TO AFFECT THE POCONOS. SO
OVERALL, WE EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECTED, TEMPERATURE
SHOULD NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD AND BREEZY DAY. WITH LOW THICKNESSES
AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF,
AND SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE LOW WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TO
BELOW ZERO FOR THE COLDEST. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, TO MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA, THERE WILL BE SOME WIND THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TO BELOW ZERO
FOR THE COLDEST.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE WHICH WILL SWITCH
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, HELP MODERATING TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE AIR REMAINS DRY STILL, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE OR ASSOCIATED LIFT FORECAST EITHER WAY, SO WE WILL ONLY
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW
MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. SO
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY GET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AGAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS VARIED BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AROUND 0200Z. THEY SHOULD
LOWER SOLIDLY INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW AND SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN HAD ALREADY
TAKEN PLACE AT KACY, KMIV, KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BY 0200Z AND
KACY AND KMIV WERE GETTING CLOSE TO CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES THERE WERE BEGINNING TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
THE TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOULD WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BETWEEN ABOUT 0300Z AND 0700Z. KRDG AND KABE
SHOULD REMAIN SNOW AND SLEET.

THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0900Z AND 1300Z. LOW CONDITIONS
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AS TO WHEN THE LOW CONDITIONS WILL BREAK ON SUNDAY BEING
THAT THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD DRY AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, WE HAVE INDICATED AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND 1600Z
TO 1800Z. THAT MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD UNTIL THE
0600Z TO 0800Z TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

THE WIND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD FAVOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS UNTIL ABOUT 0600Z TO 0800Z. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS, OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
**SINCE MUCH OF DELAWARE BAY IS COVERED BY ICE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADD THE PHRASING "ON ICE FREE WATERS" FOR THE FIRST FOUR
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST**

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
MAINLY FOR SEAS WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SUNDAY. WE KEPT WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN EXTENDED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WINDS MAY GET
CLOSE ON THE DELAWARE BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SO AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD MIN TEMPS WERE SET ON FEB 21, 2015 AT: ACY, ILG,
ABE, TTN, GED AND MPO THIS MORNING. HERE ARE THE PARTICULARS...

POR  | SITE | PREV RECORD MINT (YEAR)| NEW RECORD MINT (YEAR)
1874 | KACY |  3 (1968)         	 |  -6 (2015)
1894 | KILG	|  6 (1968,1934) 		 |   3 (2015)
1922 | KABE	|  0 (1936)      		 |  -3 (2015)
1865 | KTTN |  6 (1893)      		 |   3 (2015)
1948 | KGED |  8 (1959)      		 |  -4 (2015)
1901 | KMPO | -8 (1993)      		 |  -10(2015)

NOTE: POR= PERIOD OF RECORD (YEAR THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN)

ALSO, THE -6F ON FEB 21, 2015 IS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED
AT ATLANTIC CITY SINCE FEBRUARY 5, 1996 AND THE LATEST OCCURRENCE
OF A SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE IN THE SEASON ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS
LATEST SUB-ZERO DAY IN WINTER/SPRING WAS JUST SET YESTERDAY, AND
BEFORE THAT, IT WAS FEBRUARY 18TH WHEN THE LOW WAS -7F ON THAT
DATE IN 1979.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN/O'HARA
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...KLEIN/FRANCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1247 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ007>010-015-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-230600-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-
BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
1247 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-230600-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
1247 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

UNTREATED SECONDARY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY REMAIN SLIPPERY DUE TO
LEFTOVER ICE AND SLUSH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-230600-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
1247 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE
POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012>014-016>020-026-027-230600-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1247 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-230600-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1247 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JRK