Alert archive / New Jersey / Areal Flood Advisories in 2015

Areal Flood Advisory 32, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

May 31, 2015Middlesex County, Somerset County, New Jersey

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this areal flood advisory at May 31, 2015, 6:11 PM EDT for Middlesex County, Somerset County, New Jersey. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2015, 6:11 PM EDT (22:11 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2015, 9:15 PM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Middlesex County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 106 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 746 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 41 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at May 31, 5:46 PM EDT, 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 5:46 PM EDT, 25 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 6:09 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
609 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NJZ001-007>010-012-PAZ054-055-060>062-105-012215-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-CARBON-MONROE-
BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-UPPER BUCKS-
609 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-015>023-027-PAZ070-071-
101>104-106-012215-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
609 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS PRESENT FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-024>026-012215-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-
609 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS PRESENT FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-012215-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
609 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 31, 1:24 PM EDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NJZ013-014-020-026-311800-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-WESTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-OCEAN-
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OCEAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

AT 123 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ASBURY PARK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  A SECOND THUNDERSTORM IS APPROACHING
POINT PLEASANT.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. PLEASE GET OFF THE BEACHES
AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER.

LAT...LON 4028 7398 4012 7404 4003 7405 4006 7406
      4006 7407 4001 7405 4003 7408 4001 7409
      4001 7411 3998 7411 4005 7412 4006 7411
      4006 7413 4025 7414 4035 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 244DEG 17KT 4021 7405

Local storm report, May 31, 1:33 PM EDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
133 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORKS TWP               40.73N  75.22W
05/31/2015  M57 MPH          NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1500211

MEOLA

Special weather statement, May 31, 2:00 PM EDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NJZ013-014-020-026-311845-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-WESTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-OCEAN-
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OCEAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

AT 159 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TINTON FALLS TO NEAR ALLENWOOD TO NEAR DOVER BEACHES
NORTH...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. PLEASE LEAVE THE BEACHES AT
THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER.

WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOMS RIVER...LONG BRANCH...ASBURY PARK...TINTON FALLS...RED BANK...
MANASQUAN...POINT PLEASANT BEACH...MANTOLOKING...ELBERON...
ALLENWOOD...BRICK TOWNSHIP...DOVER BEACHES NORTH...NAVESINK...POINT
PLEASANT...EATONTOWN...WEST LONG BRANCH...RUMSON...LITTLE SILVER...
OCEANPORT AND NEPTUNE CITY.

LAT...LON 4033 7397 4007 7404 4006 7412 4005 7405
      4001 7408 3996 7407 4001 7409 3998 7413
      3998 7414 4000 7412 4003 7414 4035 7407
      4038 7401 4037 7406 4040 7405 4040 7402
      4039 7399 4039 7401 4038 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 284DEG 20KT 4029 7406 4017 7405 4002 7410

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 31, 1:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Hunterdon, Warren	45 min
May 31, 1:11 PM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	PHI	Hunterdon, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Warren	13 hr
May 31, 1:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	PHI	Monmouth	36 min
May 31, 2:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	PHI	Monmouth	45 min
May 31, 4:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Warren	42 min
May 31, 5:57 PM EDT	Small Craft Advisory	PHI		6 hr
May 31, 6:37 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Middlesex	5 hr
May 31, 6:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Middlesex, Monmouth	40 min
May 31, 7:57 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PHI	Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Warren	6 hr
May 30, 8:19 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	PHI	Carbon	56 min
May 30, 8:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	PHI	Lebanon	29 min
May 30, 9:03 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PHI	Berks	3 hr
May 30, 9:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	PHI	Lebanon	64 min
May 30, 9:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	PHI	Carbon	55 min
May 30, 9:36 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PHI	Carbon	3 hr
May 31, 5:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Monroe	63 min
May 31, 5:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Berks	37 min
May 31, 5:42 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Carbon, Monroe	6 hr
May 31, 7:08 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	PHI	Lehigh	82 min
May 31, 7:27 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PHI	Berks, Lehigh	5 hr
May 31, 7:46 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Berks, Lehigh	4 hr
May 31, 7:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Berks	35 min

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in New Jersey, 2015 Every areal flood advisory in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.