Areal Flood Advisory 193, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE NEAR OR OFF SHORE LATER TODAY. IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFF SHORE LATE TODAY. THROUGH MONDAY, A LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL OFF SHORE AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION NOW. FOR THE MOST PART,
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE NJ SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A NARROW LINE EXTENDING FROM
CAMDEN UP TO MIDDLESEX. THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH,
ALTHOUGH WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR A FEW RIVER GAGES IN THE AREA
THAT CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES FROM THE HEAVY RAIN EARLIER.

THE MAIN THING TO WATCH AFTER 12Z, WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT
WILL GET BEFORE IT BEGINS TO STALL. BASKED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS, THINK THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT
COMPLETELY OFF SHORE BEFORE IT STALLS, BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF
RAIN MENTIONED, PRIMARILY FOR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH FURTHER THE FRONT WILL
MOVE AFTER SUNRISE. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS SUCH, COOLER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION, SO
SHOULD SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE POCONOS WHERE
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL HELP RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO NEAR 70 AT THE SHORE WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS NEARER THE FRONT
MAY TEMPER THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIODS WITH THIS FORECAST TO
FOCUS ON CURRENT HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OUT
TO SEA MAY KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH
OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN- FREE...BUT EXTRA CLOUDINESS AND A NE
WIND WILL KEEP THINGS HUMID ACROSS THE ERN AREAS. WRN PARTS OF THE
AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA...SO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES SAT/SUN WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SAT AND SUN
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

MON THRU TUE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHC FOR SHOWERS
MON THRU TUE...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MON WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER AREAS WITH LOW/MID 80S NORTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU THU...A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH LOW DEW POINTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND COOLER RURAL AREAS OF SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY KMIV AND KACY WHERE FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE DAY FROM GENERALLY WESTERLY
NOW TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MID MORNING, NORTHERLY BY MID DAY (WHICH
IS WHEN SPEEDS WILL BE THE HIGHEST AS WELL), BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST. PATCHY FOG DURING THE MORNING.

MON THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH RAIN AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA/O'HARA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/O'HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA/O'HARA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1118 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

NJZ009-010-015-019-PAZ061-070-071-101>106-210415-
SOMERSET-HUNTERDON-MERCER-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-WESTERN
CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER
BUCKS-EASTERN CHESTER-DELAWARE-LEHIGH-UPPER BUCKS-
1118 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

... A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO LATE THIS EVENING...

AT 1116 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUAKERTOWN TO FRICKS TO EAST NORRITON TO PAOLI...
AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PHILADELPHIA...TRENTON...BENSALEM...EWING...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
WEST NORRITON...EAST NORRITON...PRINCETON...BRISTOL...QUAKERTOWN...
PERKASIE...DOYLESTOWN...BYRAM...RIVERSIDE...CONSHOHOCKEN...HATBORO...
BEDMINSTER...AMBLER AND FLEMINGTON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ALREADY IN AFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA COUNTY. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4018 7474 4003 7495 4003 7555 4016 7541
      4030 7530 4050 7540 4060 7477 4033 7464
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 266DEG 19KT 4045 7529 4031 7522 4016 7532 4003
7548

HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W AMBLER              40.15N  75.24W
08/21/2015  M1.92 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1500674

STAFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1251 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

NJZ012-013-015-019-020-210530-
OCEAN-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-MIDDLESEX-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
1251 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...
SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH...SOUTH CENTRAL MIDDLESEX...NORTHWESTERN OCEAN
AND NORTHERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1251 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WHITE HORSE...OR NEAR
TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANALAPAN...HIGHTSTOWN...BORDENTOWN...CRANBURY...ALLENTOWN...
ROOSEVELT...WHITE HORSE...TWIN RIVERS...WHITTINGHAM...CROSSWICKS...
CLARKSBURG...CASSVILLE...CREAM RIDGE...IMLAYSTOWN...CLEARBROOK
PARK...SIX FLAGS THEME PARK...WINDSOR...EDINBURG...
MERCERVILLE-HAMILTON SQUARE AND ENGLISHTOWN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4011 7471 4027 7474 4035 7437 4008 7434
TIME...MOT...LOC 0451Z 260DEG 18KT 4019 7470

HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EWING TWP               40.26N  74.80W
08/21/2015                   MERCER             NJ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            40 SECTION OF A TREE AND TELEPHONE POLE KNOCKED OVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1500677

HEAVE