Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
355 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN
STORE THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA.
MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW GIVING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON.  COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.  WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND ON
TUESDAY WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.  A WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KILL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE BASIN ON WEDNESDAY.  BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GORGE AND AREAS JUST EAST ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WILL DIG AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN LIKELY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER ON
THURSDAY...THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN QUESTION
BUT AT THIS TIME MOST GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUT IT OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER A
WEAK BUT BUILDING RIDGE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 580DM OVER THE
CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL ALSO MEAN RISING TEMPERATURES
FOR THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH EQUATES TO UPPER 80S - LOWER
90S IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOKING OUT TO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE....THE LATEST GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA TO A POSITION CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF WEAKENS THE UPPER LOW MUCH
FASTER...LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA DRY. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 AGL
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 01/03-05Z. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THE
HIGHEST THREAT TO SEE A TSRA WILL LIKELY BE AT KPDT AND KALW...WITH
A LOWER CHANCE BUT STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSC AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT
KDLS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONG SHOWERS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF -RA/SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 01/10-15Z...THIS BATCH OF -RA/SHRA WILL BE MOVING
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL LOWER CIGS BACK DOWN INTO
THE 4K - 9K FT AGL LEVEL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE
TAFS JUST YET. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY AT KDLS AND KPDT...WHERE WEST-NORTH-
WEST WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20-25KTS. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  75  53  70 /  50  60  60  30
ALW  63  77  57  72 /  50  60  60  30
PSC  63  83  58  75 /  50  60  60  30
YKM  60  76  55  69 /  20  60  60  30
HRI  61  79  57  73 /  50  60  60  30
ELN  59  77  53  68 /  10  60  70  40
RDM  52  66  45  63 /  40  60  40  40
LGD  55  74  52  65 /  50  60  70  60
GCD  52  75  48  67 /  20  60  60  60
DLS  61  74  57  69 /  40  60  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

79/77/77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
451 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ORZ049-050-502-010045-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-WALLOWA COUNTY OR-
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OR-
451 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
PDT...

AT 451 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA GRANDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA GRANDE...ELGIN...ISLAND CITY...IMBLER...SUMMERVILLE AND HILGARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4528 11805 4530 11808 4530 11834 4532 11838
      4571 11801 4552 11763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 221DEG 17KT 4532 11822

BIEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
459 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ORZ502-503-507-010100-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-
459 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UMATILLA AND WEST
CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM PDT...

AT 458 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
UKIAH...OR 33 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEPPNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENDLETON...MEACHAM...PILOT ROCK...UKIAH...MISSION...UMATILLA
RESERVATION AND KAMELA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4500 11893 4509 11913 4572 11877 4549 11823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 214DEG 29KT 4515 11894

BIEDA

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