Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
438 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED
EAST WITH A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...KITTITAS VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
TODAY AND THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO
MONTANA FRIDAY. THE BEST ENERGY WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON TO
MONTANA...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND GRANT TO WALLOWA
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING ISSUES WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH DGEX AND THE CANADIAN MODEL HOLDING
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.  TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHEAST OREGON DOWN INTO IDAHO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY WALLOWA COUNTY.
EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  THE RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE EXTENDED WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AND
DRY...HOWEVER THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION.

THE DGEX/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY
NIGHT WOULD SPLIT AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW THAT COULD LINGER OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON...OR MAY RETROGRADE DOWN OVER NORTHERN CA/NV AREA.
GFS DID HAVE THIS SOLUTION 48 HOURS AGO...BUT SINCE HAS KEPT MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF(NO CUTOFF LOW). THESE SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE VAST
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.  THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD MAINLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EITHER OVER CENTRAL OREGON OR NORTHEAST OREGON.  AGAIN
THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND WILL REPRESENT THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTION. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BELOW 25KFT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS TODAY.  WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUST 15 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  87  58  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  88  63  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  92  63  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  86  58  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  89  62  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  86  59  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  83  47  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  82  51  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  85  49  82  50 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  87  62  83  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

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