Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
818 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 815AM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND NEAR MORGANTOWN...WHILE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF
A TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
INCREASING SHEAR AND PROGGED INSTABILITY SEEM SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A ZZV-PIT-DUJ
LINE...THOUGH PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL. WEAKER SHEAR AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WEAKENING TREND IN ANY STORMS AS THEY ADVANCE FURTHER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DISCOUNTED THE NAM INSTABILITY
VALUES AS IT INITIALIZED TOO HIGH ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WITH
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA AND WEAKENING. THIS WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AGAIN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS SW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH WILL PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST GFS MOS
AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERSISTANT WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE IS CARVED VIA SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE AND FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT. THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING PROGNOSIS WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NUMBERS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES GIVEN RECENT CONSISTENCY IN MODEL WORLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION. QUESTIONABLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION...AS PER GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFERENCES...OF THE FRONT REQUIRED CHANCE POP MAINTENANCE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN PREDAWN FOG...WHICH WAS IFR FORECAST AT FKL AND DUJ
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THAT FEATURE TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KT AS MIXING DEEPENS. CONDITION DETERIORATION CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING WITH IFR VISIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES TOWARD
THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

MDZ001-PAZ008-009-014>016-021>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ012-021>023-041-
131730-
GARRETT-VENANGO-FOREST-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007-013-020-WVZ001>004-131730-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-LAWRENCE-BEAVER-
HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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