Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
552 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE BEST INSTABILTY
REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV PER
RECENT MESO ANALYSIS...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA THAT HAS
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME
DRY MID LEVEL AIR. IN COORDINATION WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...EXPANDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. LOWS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A DRY
SLOT QUICKLY SQUASHING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE DRY SLOT
SHOULD WORK TO DEVELOP SOME CLEARING ACROSS SW PA...EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING THE SUN TO
COUNTERACT THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN. A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST BECAUSE OF
THIS.

BROAD UPPER WAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG MID-
LEVEL JET PASSING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE 850MB TROF. MIXING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...LEADING
TO A GUSTY DAY. EXPECTING GUSTS TO TOP OUT NEAR 30KTS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PA/MD/WV.

BEST LIFT WITH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL STAY PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...BUT EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
NORTH. WILL KEEP POPS ALONG THE NORTH...BUT HAVE DOWNSCALED THEM
SOME WITH THE NORTHERN TREND OF THE ORGANIZED FORCING.

COLD AIR MAXIMIZES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...KNOCKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND WITH SKIES CLEARING...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN THE COMING
DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS COMMENCED.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND COOL BEGINNING TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKS TO BE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH OCCASIONAL
DETERIORATION TO MVFR OR BRIEF IFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT...THOUGH NORTHERN PORTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VFR STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WELL.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LATE WEEK LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
555 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

OHZ040-041-049-050-059-069-PAZ007-008-013-014-020-021-029-031-
WVZ001>004-012-021-022-122200-
CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-BELMONT-MONROE-MERCER-
VENANGO-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-HANCOCK-
BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
555 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-PAZ009-015-016-022-023-073>076-WVZ023-041-122200-
GARRETT-FOREST-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-
555 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039-048-057-058-068-122200-
TUSCARAWAS-COSHOCTON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-NOBLE-
555 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

07