Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS EXITING OHIO AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL PA. LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...RECEIVING A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO EJECT THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EXIT WITH THE ACTIVITY AND DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-040815-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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