River Flood Warning 22, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
552 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REMNANTS OF TS BILL CONTIUNE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
CLOUD TOPS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM.
BEST INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SHIFTING EAST OF
OUR AREA...SO CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. WITH THE
ONGOING RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FLOODING...WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW ALSO. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO THE E/SE.
USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. GOOD
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS FORECAST AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. CAPPING EARLY IN THE DAY MAY INHIBIT
STORM FORMATION EARLY BEFORE CAP EROSION TAKES PLACE JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WILL MATINTAIN HWO MENTION FOR THIS. SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRUSH
AREAS NORTH OF I 80 MON NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY REPRIEVE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM SECTOR OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ALLOWED HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINT OF 70 PLUS TO KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR PORTS S-E OF PIT. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
REMAIN THE BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORT WHERE EVENTUALLY IFR IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR AREA-WIDE TONIGHT AS
THE REMNANT LOW RAPIDLY TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FURTHER RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIFTING BY
NOON THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO PARTS OF
THE AREA.
FORECAST CHANGE: THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL IS TAKING A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YESTERDAY, AND IT IS
LIKELY TO NOW BRING AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA.

IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MONONGAHELA BASIN WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1.00 AND
1.50 INCHES. THE CHEAT BASIN AROUND 1.00 INCH. BETWEEN 1.50 AND
2.00 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE PITTSBURGH AREA WITH
LESS THAN 0.50 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ALLEGHENY BASIN.

THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL QUICKLY END BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IS NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIVER
LEVELS/FLOWS WILL BE ELEVATED.

CURRENTLY NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE ALLEGHENY, OHIO OR
MONONGAHELA BUT STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING
WHERE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR STREAMS AND
CREEKS IS POSTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

THE CHEAT RIVER AT PARSONS IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 5 FEET GRAYS
LANDING IS PROJECTED TO CREST JUST ABOVE 13 FEET. PITTSBURGH WILL
REMAIN IN POOL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ049-050-057>059-
     068-069.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ021-029-031-
     073>076.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

07/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

OHZ039>041-048-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-023-212200-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069-PAZ021-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-
012-021>023-041-212200-
GARRETT-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-
MONROE-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

07

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