Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
633 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING A QUASI-STATIONARY NE-SW ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WERE
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATER THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR CWA PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. FOR THE SAKE OF TIME
AND WITHOUT GOING INTO TOO MUCH DETAIL...A NUMBER OF SEVERE
PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER OVER OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY
TODAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA
AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE OHIO RIVER. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND ENDING AROUND MID
AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
INTERACTS WITH WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT.

WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING REPORTED AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES HERE AND
THERE...AND WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WILL
KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE GREATER PART OF THE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL ACT UPON A
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW TO KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. FINER DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL
VARIATIONS IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

BY LATE WEEK...THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
SWEEP ALL THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
THE WEEKEND UNTIL DRY WEATHER RETURNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

IFR/VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWEST STARTING AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...JP
LONG TERM...RJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-040830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
325 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE WEST STARTING LATE THIS MORNING
WITH THE THREAT CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. SEE FLOOD WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

JP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RALEIGH                 37.83N 88.53W
04/03/2015                   SALINE             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD ALONG ILLINOIS ROUTE 34 NORTH

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 AM     HAIL             5 SW STURGIS            37.49N 88.05W
04/03/2015  M0.88 INCH       CRITTENDEN         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

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