Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

A BOUNDARY IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/VICINITY. OUR AIRMASS IS STILL WARM/MUGGY...ESP SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE IN THE PM
HEAT...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS ROBUST IN THE WORKED OVER ENVIRON.
STILL...WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING...AND ANOTHER VORT WAVE
INCOMING TONIGHT...AND OUR SATURATED GROUNDS/HIGH PW'S...WILL
LEAVE OUR INHERITED FFA AS IS THRU TONIGHT. ALMOST ANY REPEAT
HEAVY RAINER WILL CAUSE AT MINIMUM AN ADVISORY AND POSSIBLY
NECESSITATE A WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS BACKS OUR
UPPER FLOW TO NWLY AND KEEPS A "DIRTY" CONVECTIVE CHANCE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ESP THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA...SO CHANCES
WILL HAVE TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING OVER
TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS IN PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW.  IN ADDITION, MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN
THE WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PAH
FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF
OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  OUR BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AT BEST DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP US WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES.  IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD
BRIEFLY TURN NORTHWEST, BUT THE FRONT ALSO MAY JUST WASH OUT OVER
US.  IN EITHER CASE, THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN
AIR MASS, SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRETTY WARM AND MUGGY LATE IN
THE WEEK BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY END.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

VARYING CIGS FROM MVFR TO LOW VFR WILL PERSIST. HEAT OF DAY BREAKS
MAY SCATTER CLOUDS AT TIMES...BUT BOUYANT PARCELS WILL AGAIN CLOUD
UP AND PREVAILING SKIES SHOULD SEE MAINLY BKN CIGS. TONIGHT...ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...INITIATING PCPN CHANCES AGAIN...ESP NORTH...LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
437 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-101000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-
JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-
ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-
FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-
CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-
HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
437 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR DETAILS.

REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
AREA RIVER FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
AREA RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HOPKINSVILLE            36.85N 87.49W
07/09/2015  M3.35 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            72 HOUR TOTAL

&&

SP