River Flood Warning 110, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
530 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

Updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 218 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

Quad 2 pcpn pattern just north of warm front will continue into
early overnight hours...with most of that pcpn light. As Low
starts to lift into AR late tonight...anticipate ramp up in pcpn
into far southwest. Wind fields will likewise start to ramp up as
tighter gradient moves in.

Best burst of rain/qpf and wind, looks to come tmrw morning in the
south and west, and from mid morning to mid afternoon in the north
and east...as the Low tracks into NE MO/WCNTRl IL by 00z (Tue).
It is this swath of qpf...maybe another 1-2" total...that will
fall on saturated grounds and fill in already near bankfull creeks
and streams...accelerating the Flood threat. LMK collab early
resulted in expansion of FFA all counties and this is well and
good given very wet conditions, additional incoming heavy rains,
and expectation for near certainty flood warnings/advisories with
this next bout late tonight-tmrw.

Adjusted grids winds/gusts to push toward but fall just shy of
Advisory thresholds...something else to keep an eye upon tmrw.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

High confidence continues for the extended.

We start the extended in southwesterly flow aloft as a low lifts out
of the southern plains into the great lakes region. This will trail
a relatively weak cold front over the extreme southeast portion of
the area near Hopkinsville. This will result in a slight chance of
rain early Wednesday but confidence is not that great for measurable
precipitation. Otherwise the slow will slowly become more zonal
through the end of the week finally becoming northwesterly next
weekend. In contrast to the recent climate...temperatures will
actually plunge to below normal as we approach 2016. Very dry air
will be in place over the region through the extended with dew
points droppin into the teens. With such a dry air mass in place we
have high confidence in a dry extended barring possibly Wednesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

While there may be a relative lull in widespread pcpn, esp with IFR
vsby restrictions, this evening/early tonight...another round of
heavier pcpn moves in with an ejecting area of low pressure late
tonight into tmrw. Thus...will maintain an overall pessimistic
forecast and keep MVFR restrictions categorical, transitioning to
IFR at times, for both cigs/vsbys. This will include a low prob
threat of heavy rain/thunder with the lift of the low/warm front
tmrw morning-early pm. Winds will continue to be gusty and shift
from northeasterly to easterly and eventually
southerly/southwesterly late in the fcst period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for KYZ001>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
908 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
908 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING. REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO
KENTUCKY TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI...INCLUDING ALL OF WEST KENTUCKY.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST.

RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT ON SEVERAL
RIVERS. IF THE EXPECTED FORECAST RAINFALL COMES TO
FRUITION...RIVER FLOODING COULD APPROACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT
SOME POINTS ALONG THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY FOR SEVERE STORMS. WE
REQUEST SPOTTERS REPORT IN IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
347 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
12/27/2015  M1.82 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.82 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. TWO DAY STORM TOTAL
            OF 4.16 INCHES.

&&

BP2