Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Paducah, KY

Edwards County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Saline County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Caldwell County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Lyon County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
410 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

SEVERE STORM PATTERN STILL LOOKS BE SETTING UP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...GENERALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS HAS SET SET UP A NW/DIFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VALLEY
REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING SE IN THIS FLOW COULD TRIGGER
AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THO
EXACT TIMING AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GENERATING MUCH
ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF OUR REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
SOME MESO MODELS SUGGEST ONE MCS PUSHING SE ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES TODAY...THEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS LATER THIS EVENING
EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE MS RIVER. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND MID 70 DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW VERY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AND SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES WILL ALSO BE
QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY WHERE SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MANAGE TO FORM. A COUPLE OF DERECHO TYPE
EVENTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. ONE OF THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS
LIES WITH THE DEGREE OF CAPPING AS ONE MOVES FARTHER WEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WHETHER IT CAN BE BROKEN OR NOT.

GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUND OF STORMS THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND PWATS SOARING TOWARD THE
95TH PERCENTILE (OF NORMAL)...COULD BE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
TO BOOT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z WED FOR SE
IL/SW IN AND THE PENNYRILE OF WRN KY. STRONG STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE  INTO TUES...ESP OVER E/SE PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE BROAD NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES SE TOWARD
THE OH RIVER. THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTH...BY THE TIME WED ROLLS AROUND.

SHIFTING TO HEAT ISSUES...WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
WITH ACTUAL TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD THE MID 90S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CLOSER TO 105 IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. AFTER THIS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NICELY OVER THE
REGION SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

THE ECMWF WANTS TO MOVE THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEST ALLOWING CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS HOLDS ON TO THE RIDGE. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR BORDER
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A GENERALLY DRY
WEEKEND.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN THE BIG STORY WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE WHOLE REGION. HEAT INDICES OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY WILL EASILY
TOP 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. AS STATED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NECESSARY FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...
HOWEVER VCTS POSSIBLE AT KEVV/KOWB AFTER 21Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 15Z AROUND 8-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 14-15 KNOTS AT
KCGI/KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088>090-092>094.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087-091.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ001>009.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ010>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...JP

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