Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

March 25, 2015Bollinger County, Wayne County, Missouri

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at Mar 25, 2015, 9:30 PM CDT for Bollinger County, Wayne County, Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2015, 9:30 PM CDT (02:30 UTC)
Expired: Mar 26, 2015, 3:30 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Bollinger County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 261 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 264 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -213 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1469 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 165 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 315 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 4.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

601 
WGUS53 KPAH 260230
FFWPAH
MOC017-223-260830-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.W.0002.150326T0230Z-150326T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
930 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
  BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT THURSDAY
    
* AT 929 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
  BEGIN SHORTLY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 9078 3717 9074 3727 9073 3727 9055
      3732 9055 3731 9015 3760 9015 3760 8986
      3713 8987 3713 8996 3705 8996 3704 9000
      3704 9015 3701 9015 3696 9022 3692 9025
      3693 9070 3705 9073 3705 9078

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Mar 25, 2:35 PM CDT, 6 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 2:35 PM CDT, 6 hours 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BISECTED OUR CWA
FROM NE-SW. A SHARP H5 TROUGH DIVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME THE APPROACH OF SAID LOW WILL CAUSE THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT TO BE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA PUTING US
IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS
A RESULT...WITH THE SMALL EXCEPTION OF A FEW DISCREET WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SNEAKING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...OUR REGION SHOULD REMAINMOSTLY DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RAMP UP QUICKLY AFTER 00Z (7PM
THIS EVENING) AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AS THE LOW RACES ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROCKPORT INDIANA TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVING SLIGHTLY SHIFTED THE
MAIN AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE SPEED AT
WHICH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
THE VERIFICATION OF OUR FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL KEEP THE FLAG FLYING
FOR THE TIME BEING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...PECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL QPF EXPECTED. AFTER AN
EXTREMELY BRIEF RESPITE...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING A
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIINS COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MAY GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. PER SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ETC
PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MAY FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
ONLY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...FROST IS A POSSIBLITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
PERSONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD TAKE THE APPROPRIATE ACTION FOR
PROTECTION OF TENDER OUTDOOR PLANTS THAT MAY ALREADY BE BUDDING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SFC WILL KEEP US COOL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME ENERGY DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WHATEVER MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUICK HITTING AND LEAVE THE AFTERNOON DRY.

AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
50S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST MODEL WITH THE CANADIAN
BEING THE WETTEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMMENCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. NO REAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR IN THE LATEST DATA UNTIL MAYBE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A NW
FLOW PATTERN...THAT CAN AND WILL ULTIMATELY CHANGE. WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED BUT THERE IS NOT
A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL AT THIS POINT TO FEEL CONFIDENT ON RAISING
POPS ANY MORE.

DESPITE A RATHER COLD DAY ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEATHER SYSTEM TONIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE...AT LEAST AT KCGI/KPAH...TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KNOTS WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
LAST SIX HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088.

MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107.

IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...CW

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 3:08 PM CDT, 6 hours 22 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
308 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS TO CAPE GIRARDEAU TO VAN BUREN MISSOURI. PLEASE
REFER TO THE WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE EARLY EVENING...WHEN MORE
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SELECTED AREA
RIVERS. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD MAKE
PLANS TO PROTECT ANY TENDER VEGETATION DURING THIS EARLY SPRING COLD
SNAP.

MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SELECTED AREA
RIVERS. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 8:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
825 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             COBDEN                  37.53N 89.25W
03/25/2015  M0.75 INCH       UNION              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SP

Local storm report, Mar 25, 8:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
828 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             WARE                    37.45N 89.39W
03/25/2015  M1.00 INCH       UNION              IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SP

Local storm report, Mar 25, 8:44 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
844 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W MILL SPRING         37.06N 90.72W
03/25/2015                   WAYNE              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR THE REYNOLDS/WAYNE COUNTY LINE

&&

SP

Local storm report, Mar 25, 8:54 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
854 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             5 NW CAPE GIRARDEAU     37.36N 89.61W
03/25/2015  M1.00 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT

&&

SP

Local storm report, Mar 25, 9:11 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
911 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             WARE                    37.45N 89.39W
03/25/2015  M1.50 INCH       UNION              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT

&&

SP

Local storm report, Mar 25, 9:30 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
930 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             2 S MARBLE HILL         37.27N 89.98W
03/25/2015  M0.75 INCH       BOLLINGER          MO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

SP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 25, 7:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau	52 min
Mar 25, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Carter, Wayne	51 min
Mar 25, 8:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Wayne	47 min
Mar 25, 9:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger	17 min
Mar 25, 9:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ripley	41 min
Mar 25, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau, Scott	51 min
Mar 25, 10:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Stoddard	21 min
Mar 25, 10:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau	6 hr
Mar 26, 12:06 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	PAH	Perry	6 hr
Mar 26, 1:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, New Madrid	22 min
Mar 26, 10:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	PAH	Wayne	36 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.