Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...TIED TO THE UPPER LOW SHOWING UP NEAR
SOUTHEAST BOLLINGER COUNTY MISSOURI AT 19Z (WEST OF KCGI). THE THE
HRRR...NAM-WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH
THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS LOCAL MESOSCALE DISCUSSION,
CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LOW. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ALOFT, LOW LEVEL
VEERING THROUGH 5KFT, DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E ADVECTION, AND SURFACE
HELICITY IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AND LIFT AIR FOR SMALL
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND TRANSFER OF WIND MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.
ANTICIPATE SMALL POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN IL, WEST KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED AT A
MINIMUM IN THE MODERATE RAINFALL CORES (NOT INCLUDING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS). THE NAM-WRF SEEMS TO BE DOING A RELATIVELY GOOD
JOB...LONG WITH WPC QPF IN DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPACT SYSTEM. THERE IS
STILL A CONCERN THAT THE CONTRACTION OF THE LOW THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES IN THE NEAR TERM.

FOR NOW, AT LEAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE EXISTING RIVER
AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY OUT. WILL LEAVE TO THE EVENING
AND MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TO REDUCE THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE WATCH AS
THE ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...THE FOCUS
TURNS TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...MAINLY A SHARP RISE IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANTICIPATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE WIDESPREAD,
ESPECIALLY IN THE 19Z-00Z (2 PM-8 PM CDT) TIME FRAME ON SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONCERN FOR THE SUMMER TIME HEAT IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND POSSIBLE CONSIDER A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED OF A HEAT
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA DUE
TO A SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S, AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE, WE COULD SEE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

ECMWF, GFS AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A FRONT MEANDERING NORTH OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.  THEY SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM TIME TO TIME, THOUGH TIMING AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
IS NOT GOOD.  WENT AHEAD AND KEPT SOME SMALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW, AND KEPT OUR ENTIRE AREA DRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY, GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT DIPPING
THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY,
THEN INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  IF THE BOUNDARY DOES MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH, IT SHOULD DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND/OR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...THEN IMPROVE/DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH EARLY
WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST AND DIMINISH
TO AOB 10 KNOTS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ004-005.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ007-010-014-
     015-018>020.

&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
402 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
402 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PART OF WEST
KENTUCKY.

HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER
FLOODING...AND MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BILL...A STORM OR
TWO MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN BANDS AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION THAT WAS
ONCE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED A SMALL AREA OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVY RAIN
BANDS...RANGING FROM THREE TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH AN HOUR.
THESE RAIN BANDS WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL AGGRAVATE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING...AND MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF ADDITIONAL
WATERWAYS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM MURPHYSBORO ILLINOIS TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY HAZARD. PERSONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 MAY ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXTENDED PATH OF DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PART OR ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THROUGH TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...BUT SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH AND REPORTS OF FLOODING SHOULD BE FORWARDED TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY.

RP/SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
624 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARBONDALE              37.72N 89.22W
06/19/2015                   JACKSON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN THE COMMUNITIES OF
            CARBONDALE AND MURPYSBORO.

&&

SMITTY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
808 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DU QUOIN                38.00N 89.24W
06/19/2015                   PERRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL ROADS UNDER WATER...INCLUDING U.S. HIGHWAY 51

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
813 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLOOD            MARION                  37.73N 88.94W
06/19/2015                   WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR STREET FLOODING...S COURT ST AND COPLAND ST
            INTERSECTION IMPASSABLE.

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
820 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMBRIA                 37.78N 89.11W
06/19/2015                   WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER ROADWAY OCCURRING AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ALONG
            CAMBRIA ROAD

&&

BP2