Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. CORRECTED LONG TERM DISCUSSION TEXT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VERY BUSY AND COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST SO WILL NOT GO INTO
TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE INTEREST OF TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER THE CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY THE REASON FOR THIS UNWELCOMED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH
WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR BEYOND MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM
THURSDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SEE PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, SO THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FINALLY POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH, SO DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS A NEW FRIGID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
AS PCPN TRANSITIONS FROM RA TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA...THEN
SLEET...THEN SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WED. THOUGH SOME DATA SUGGESTS IFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WE WENT WITH
SLOWLY RISING CIGS TO MVFR BY WED EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-042145-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
332 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL
AS MINOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED AND IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE WARNING FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS NORTH OF ROUTE 13 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY FLOODING ISSUES THAT MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1059 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>010-014-015-018>020-
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-040800-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-UNION KY-WEBSTER-
HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-
NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...
VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...
CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1059 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...PATCHY DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...

THOSE TRAVELING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE REGION TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY DUE TO AREAS OF
DENSE FOG.

WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES TODAY HAVE BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS WARM AIR IS MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY COLD GROUND. THIS CASES THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BECOME QUITE SATURATED...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE
FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND MAY VARY RAPIDLY FROM
ONE LOCATION TO ANOTHER.

BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY WHILE YOU ARE DRIVING
ON ROADWAYS. MAKE SURE THAT YOU KEEP YOUR HEADLIGHTS ON
LOW BEAM IN DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE PLENTY
OF ROOM BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER DRIVERS ON THE ROAD.