Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MODIFIED POP/WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CONVECTION HAS
EVOLVED INTO COMPLEXES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PRESENT A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. GRIDDED POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 40 PERCENT OVER MUCH
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST WILL CENTER AROUND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
WITH HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOMORROW.

WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY AN UPPER WAVE EARLIER TODAY.
THIS HAS LIMITED HEATING TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARNETT TO
CHEROKEE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND SPORADIC
SHOWER ACTIVITY...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

DESPITE SLOW WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION...ALONG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. AS A POTENT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR WILL BE ON
THE RISE. THESE PARAMETERS WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR A
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORM. IN ADDITION...A NOTED TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD SUNSET AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES. THIS IS CERTAINLY THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN STORM COVERAGE.

FURTHER SOUTH...STORM INITIATION WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY MIXING
ALONG THE DRYLINE. STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH BASED...BUT
CLOUD BASES SHOULD LOWER AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT STORMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO PERSIST WITHIN A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT A THREAT
OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT. WHILE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST
WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN MOVE INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE MORE SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A STILLWATER TO CLINTON LINE...NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A HAIL AND WIND THREAT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY
STABILIZES.

A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ELEVATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST IN THE BREEZY WARM POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

A BRIEF RESPITE IN SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY...BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED BY
SATURDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER TROUGHS ROLL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST ON CERTAIN DAYS NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS
REMAIN TOO INCONSISTENT TO POINT TO ANY PARTICULAR DAYS.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  78  46  70 /  40  10  10  10
HOBART OK         61  78  45  71 /  40  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  50  72 /  40  10  10  10
GAGE OK           53  71  40  72 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  74  41  70 /  60  10  10   0
DURANT OK         66  77  51  72 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
745 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK COVERS ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND AREAS TO THE WEST
OF A LINE FROM HOLDENVILLE TO ARDMORE.

TIMING...
8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STORM
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DURANT AND
ATOKA. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES UNTIL TUESDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
743 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             10 N TEXOLA             35.36N 99.99W
04/08/2015  E1.25 INCH       BECKHAM            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             1 N SWEETWATER          35.44N 99.91W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   PUBLIC

0747 PM     HAIL             10 N TEXOLA             35.36N 99.99W
04/08/2015  E2.00 INCH       BECKHAM            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             DEMPSEY                 35.52N 99.82W
04/08/2015  E2.75 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF BROKEN CAR WINDOWS.

&&

TLINDLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
823 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             DEMPSEY                 35.51N 99.82W
04/08/2015  E2.75 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NE SWEETWATER         35.50N 99.82W
04/08/2015  E70 MPH          ROGER MILLS        OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 N OF GRIMES

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
839 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE CHEYENNE           35.54N 99.58W
04/08/2015  E75 MPH          ROGER MILLS        OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0821 PM     HAIL             CHEYENNE                35.61N 99.67W
04/08/2015  E1.50 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 PM     HAIL             4 S CHEYENNE            35.56N 99.67W
04/08/2015  E2.00 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   STORM CHASER

0827 PM     HAIL             5 E CHEYENNE            35.61N 99.58W
04/08/2015  E3.00 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0827 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 E CHEYENNE            35.61N 99.58W
04/08/2015  E75 MPH          ROGER MILLS        OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DW