Severe Thunderstorm Warning 612, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND ARRIVE NEAR THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED POP AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH 12Z.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE PRIMARY COMPLEX HAS DISSIPATED. THE HRRR APPEARS TOO FAST WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
THEREFORE...OPTED TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH 06Z.

NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF
BEING INFLUENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
CONSEQUENTLY...INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z.

MAHALE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENTLY... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE NE/KS
BORDER... WITH INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NRN INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING... APPROACHING THE OK/KS
BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONTINUITY BETWEEN TRADITIONAL AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE REMAINS DECENT. THE HRRR AND HIRES WRFS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH 00Z... THE 12Z NAM IS A STEP SLOWER... BUT SIMILAR. GIVEN
INCREASING DPTS THIS AFTN AND AN INCREASING ISENTROPIC RESPONSE INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS NWRN OK... FELT COMFORTABLE TO INCREASE PRECIP
CHCS IN THE NW BETWEEN 00-06Z. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE
INCREMENTALLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS NRN AND NERN OK. AS FOR SEVERE CHANCES... MODEST ML-
CAPE VALUES 1000-1700 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT... WITH 20 TO 30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. LOOKING AT BUFR
SOUNDINGS... MOST OF THIS INSTABILITY IS WELL ELEVATED... WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING A HAIL OR WIND THREAT... QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS. OVERALL... THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME ACROSS NRN OK THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNSET.

FRIDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS NERN INTO CENTRAL OK. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE AFTN. INTO THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING... SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP... RESULTING IN
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER... SEVERE
CHANCES REMAIN LOW.

SHOULD BE A WONDERFUL WEEKEND AS TEMPS REMAIN MILD... WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SRLY FLOW RETURNS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
WRN US MON-TUE. OVERALL... THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK... WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEK AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  80  55  78 /  30  40   0   0
HOBART OK         68  81  58  81 /  10  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  87  59  83 /  10  30  10   0
GAGE OK           63  78  54  81 /  40  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  78  51  75 /  80  40   0   0
DURANT OK         71  87  59  81 /   0  40  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

10/09/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-120400-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1048 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF AN
ARNETT TO ENID TO RED ROCK LINE...INCLUDING WOODWARD...ALVA...AND
PONCA CITY. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS DOLLARS AND DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MAHALE

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