Severe Thunderstorm Warning 587, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STRONG VARIABLE WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

STRONG FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTN WILL BE AN
INITIAL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW
FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... MAINLY
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
PRECIP... ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A VERY COOL DAY FOR AUGUST. HIGHS ON WED EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A VERY COOL MORNING
THURSDAY BEFORE WE GET A MODEST WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND SOME WEAK WAA DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND A STORM SYSTEM DRAGS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVING THE AREA ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING THE TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE
THEN TRIES TO MAKE A RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  71  56  81 /  80  70   0   0
HOBART OK         65  75  55  83 /  60  50   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  80  59  85 /  30  30  30   0
GAGE OK           60  75  54  82 /  80  50   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  73  54  83 /  80  60   0   0
DURANT OK         76  83  60  81 /  30  70  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/25/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-200430-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1126 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAVERNE TO FREEDOM LINE AND WEST OF A WAYNOKA TO WATONGA TO
FREDERICK LINE.

TIMING...
THROUGH 5 AM.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INITIAL STORMS WILL BE STRONG
TO SEVERE... WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH... HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 5 AM... TOWARDS DUSK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ

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