Severe Thunderstorm Warning 570, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 10 KT OR BELOW AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST TERMINALS AND
REMAIN SOUTHERLY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AM ACROSS NORTHERN OK NEAR PNC. WILL
INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP THERE FOR NOW...BUT A TEMPO TSRA GROUP MAY
BE INTRODUCED IN A LATER FORECAST IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK NORTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ITS POSITION WILL SUPPORT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT PASS OVER
THOSE AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY BE MET...POSSIBLY BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE SITUATION...AND WILL ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES THAT ARE DEEMED NECESSARY. BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER...IT IS
NEARLY CERTAIN THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE SLOWLY
OVER TIME...BUT THE HEAT WILL REMAIN...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
WHEN WE WILL BE ABLE TO DISPENSE WITH THE ADVISORIES AGAIN.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT ALMOST ANYWHERE
IN OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE
STORMS. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK WAVE ALOFT THAT
WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE NORTH. OTHER THAN THE
KANSAS BORDER AREA...CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  97  75  99 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         75 101  76 101 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  98  78  99 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71  99  73 100 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  96  78 100 /  30  20  10   0
DURANT OK         78  98  77  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/03/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231930-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
935 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED... ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.HEAT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED...WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. PLEASE EXERCISE HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES...AND LIMIT
EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

AUSTIN/KURTZ/30

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