Severe Thunderstorm Warning 512, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS MAY IMPACT GAG/WWR THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE... A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOME
MFVR AND PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWEST
OK BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015/

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONT FROM KANSAS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL HELP WITH LIFT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST,
THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT WILL LIKE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. BEYOND TONIGHT'S SLIGHT RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL, SEVERE
RISK IS LOW. WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A TEMPORARY REBUILDING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OF THE WEEK. BY LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER FRONT FROM
THE NORTH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  89  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         69  90  69  91 /  20  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  91  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           64  87  64  89 /  60  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  67  92 /  40  20  10  10
DURANT OK         71  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

84/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1142 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

.LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GAGE TO MEDFORD
OKLAHOMA. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ENCOMPASSES THE SLIGHT
RISK...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE TO PERRY OKLAHOMA.

.TIMING...
7 PM THROUGH 1 AM.

.IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE SAME
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND THEN
SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THEY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS NEARING 60 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THE
MOMENT...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY WEST OF I35...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

03/AUSTIN

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