Severe Thunderstorm Warning 486, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES.

AN AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED NOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER GARVIN AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS. THIS
HAS RECENTLY LED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE
HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE TO STORM ROTATION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MANY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
THESE STORMS DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AN INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL JET WOULD POINT TO STORM MAINTENANCE WELL AFTER
DARK...AND EXPECT AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FLOOD
THREAT MAY INCREASE MARKEDLY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...AS
TRAINING STORM CORES DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM COMPLEX...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. THIS CERTAINLY WONT HELP
THE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS...AND WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOMETIME
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
PROVIDE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE LONGER TERM WEATHER PICTURE.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  81  66  80 /  40  50  60  50
HOBART OK         65  82  65  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  84  67  82 /  40  40  60  50
GAGE OK           63  82  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  80  69  80 /  50  50  50  60
DURANT OK         67  83  69  81 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

06/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PART OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST OF A WOODWARD TO ELK
CITY TO ALTUS AND VERNON...TEXAS LINE. FARTHER EAST...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO
EL RENO AND ARDMORE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM
3 PM TO 10 PM...

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STRONG INSTABILITY...AND MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND. AS STORMS DRIFT EAST DURING THE
EVENING...STORM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE.

.FLOODING...
NUMEROUS STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...AND A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAY
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. STORM CHANCES MAY
DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

OKZ043-047-048-272200-
ATOKA OK-COAL OK-JOHNSTON OK-
433 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ATOKA...SOUTHWESTERN COAL
AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 430 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CONNERVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAPANUCKA...BROMIDE...CLARITA...PONTOTOC AND CONNERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 9673 3450 9670 3450 9639 3428 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 280DEG 13KT 3445 9662

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