Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER W OK/N TX W/KSPS
THIS EVENING. TAFS MENTION TSRA ONLY WHERE PROBABILITY IS GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. A SMALL STORM COMPLEX MAY FORM
AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM EXISTING STORMS...AND SPEED E ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS...STRONG W WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KPNC. THE
KPNC TAF INCLUDES THIS EVENT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS IT MIGHT BE.
TOMORROW MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BE THAT BAD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF TSRA ALL DAY...BUT MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS DISCUSSION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

OVERALL... GUIDANCE HAS DONE A POOR JOB IN HANDLING THE BKN/OVC
LOW/MID STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK AND WRN N TX.
THROUGH 20Z... SOME SCATTERED CLEARING HAS FINALLY STARTED AS MORE
STRATOCU/CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LACK OF INSTABILITY/BL MIXING ACROSS MOST OF
WRN OK AND WRN N TX... BUT WITH THE RECENT TRANSITION TO STRATOCU...
MIXING MAY FINALLY BE PICKING UP. THE EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR NW OK AND INTO THE PANHANDLES APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY A FOCUSED
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT... SUPPORTED BY A NARROW REGION OF 1500
J/KG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW... WHICH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE RECENT SEVERE CONVECTION IN
THE PANHANDLES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE/PSUEDO-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER.

AT THE MOMENT... HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
REMAINS A CHALLENGE. TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER LOW AND CONVECTION. RECENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CATCH ON IN SPURTS... BUT IT STRUGGLES AS WELL.
OVERALL... EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD... HOWEVER... RECENT OBS THROUGH 20Z SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE MAY BE STARTING ITS GRADUAL RETREAT TO THE WEST. WITH THIS
SAID... EXPECT THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT (IF WE CAN CALL IT THAT)... WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT E/NE INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING... WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO NWRN OK AROUND 5 TO 7PM CDT. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORMS
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ON THE RECENT HRRR (18Z RUN)... BUT THE
TIMING MAY BE LATE... THE 12Z TTU WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON TIMING... AS DOES THE WRF-NMM. NOT TO FOCUS SOLELY ON THE WRN
ACTIVITY... STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTN. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING N/NE INTO WRN
N TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS IT REMAINS DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

AS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX...
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN OR DEVELOP WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL (GOLF BALLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60-70MPH). SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL WANE WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO WRN OK... 0-1KM
HELICITY DECREASES AND THE LACK OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN OK AT THE MOMENT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  74  59  77 /  40  50  60  30
HOBART OK         57  75  55  77 /  50  50  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  77  58  80 /  40  50  50  20
GAGE OK           54  74  51  76 /  70  50  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  74  58  75 /  30  60  70  50
DURANT OK         61  77  62  78 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-172100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
359 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO
CLINTON...TO LAWTON...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS... HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH. THERE IS A VERY LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WHEN THEY MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS VERY LOW IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL COMPLEXES OF STORMS DURING THE LATE
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
EAST INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT DIMINISHES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXOMA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS ACROSS
TEXOMA WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SUNSET... DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS A
LARGER PART OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY GET CLOSER. BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ON SUNDAY BUT SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR LOW. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OKZ004-005-009-010-170015-
HARPER OK-WOODS OK-ELLIS OK-WOODWARD OK-
638 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HARPER...NORTHWESTERN
WOODS...NORTHERN ELLIS AND NORTHWESTERN WOODWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

AT 635 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SELMAN TO 11 MILES WEST OF FREEDOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...FORT SUPPLY AND SELMAN.

LAT...LON 3700 9917 3659 9922 3651 9970 3700 9958
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 214DEG 17KT 3679 9947 3681 9932

KURTZ

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