River Flood Warning 36, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT WEATHER AND EXPECTED SHORT-TERM TRENDS. WE
HAVE ALSO BEEN CHIPPING AWAY AT THE VARIOUS WATCHES AS THE THREATS
HAVE SHIFTED EAST.

THE BASIC FORECAST IS FOR THE CURRENT MASS OF CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. BY MIDNIGHT...THE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEAST
FIFTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY SUNRISE...ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DEPARTED OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF OUR AREA...THERE WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER/STORM
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.

THERE IS ALSO A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD AND STRENGTHENS
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A BAND OF +TSRA FROM NEAR KAVK TO KCLK TO KF05 AT 2330Z WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE E THIS EVENING...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES TO THE
E. MANY WILL BE SEVERE. THE TAFS WERE AGAIN WRITTEN TO EMPHASIZE
THE MOST LIKELY TIMES THAT STORMS WILL OCCUR...BUT CANNOT BE
SPECIFIC ABOUT THE CONDITIONS THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE TSRA BECAUSE
IT WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES AND TIMES. AFTER
THE STORMS...MOST SITES WILL BECOME CLEAR...WINDS WILL RETURN TO
S AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT...AND THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR AND SE OF KPNC-KOKC-KDUC.
IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT UNLIKELY...THAT BLDU AND GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO FAR W OK THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OBVIOUSLY...THE BIG STORY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE CONVECTIVE
SITUATION. IT IS STILL NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR EXACTLY WHAT FORM THE
STORMS WILL TAKE AS THEY TRAVERSE OUR FORECAST AREA. THEY MAY BE
IN THE FORM OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LINES/BOWS/ETC...OR
SCATTERED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES. A
PAIR OF TORNADO WATCHES COVERS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THIS EVENING.

THE ENTIRE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL SLOWLY
DIMINISHES. SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SIGNIFICANT STORMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 3 OR 4 AM.

MEANWHILE...ALREADY-WET SOIL WILL MAKE IT EASY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. WE PREVIOUSLY EXPANDED OUR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. WE DO EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO TRIM PIECES OF THE
WATCH OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF
RAIN GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST.

THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TOMORROW...THEN MOST MODELS LEAVE IT THERE...OR MOVE IT BACK
NORTHWEST...DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WITH A DIFFERENT VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LESS LIKELY.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL TRAVEL. IN ANY CASE...EARLY/MID-WEEK
WILL PROBABLY BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND RAIN CHANCES NEVER REALLY LEAVE OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MAINLY RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK...BECAUSE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  83  62  81 /  60   0   0  20
HOBART OK         55  84  58  81 /  30   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  86  63  83 /  60  10  10  20
GAGE OK           53  82  52  79 /  30   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  84  59  80 /  80   0  10  20
DURANT OK         66  84  65  82 /  80  30  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-180215-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM MEDFORD TO ENID TO WATONGA TO LAWTON TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY...STILLWATER...PONCA CITY...
ADA...AND ARDMORE AREAS.

OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT.

TIMING...
BEFORE 2 AM TONIGHT.

IMPACTS IN THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDE...
BASEBALL-SIZED HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS 70 TO 80 MPH...
STRONG TORNADOES...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A FEW DANGEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL AN WINDS WILL
OCCUR ALONG WITH THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES...EAST OF THE
LINE OF STORMS.

AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA...THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WHICH
MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
917 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE LAWTON            34.63N 98.34W
05/16/2015  M70 MPH          COMANCHE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     TINKER AIR FORCE BASE   35.42N 97.39W
05/16/2015  M58 MPH          OKLAHOMA           OK   AWOS

&&

JPIKE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNCAN                  34.50N 97.96W
05/16/2015                   STEPHENS           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2.5-INCH TREE DOWNED AND BLOCKING A STREET.

&&

JPIKE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1039 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND GST     SWEETWATER              35.43N 99.91W
05/16/2015  E65.00 MPH       ROGER MILLS        OK   PUBLIC

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     20 NW CROWELL           34.19N 99.97W
05/16/2015                   FOARD              TX   STORM CHASER

            LESS THAN 2-INCH SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWNED

0431 PM     TSTM WND GST     20 NW CROWELL           34.19N 99.97W
05/16/2015  E70.00 MPH       FOARD              TX   STORM CHASER

0445 PM     HAIL             STRONG CITY             35.67N 99.60W
05/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   PUBLIC

0445 PM     HAIL             4 S GOODLETT            34.28N 99.88W
05/16/2015  E2.75 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   STORM CHASER

0445 PM     HAIL             4 S GOODLETT            34.28N 99.88W
05/16/2015  E1.75 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY KOLJ RADIO

0454 PM     HAIL             2 N QUANAH              34.32N 99.74W
05/16/2015  E2.00 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   PUBLIC

0457 PM     HAIL             QUANAH                  34.30N 99.74W
05/16/2015  E2.75 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

0458 PM     HAIL             QUANAH                  34.30N 99.74W
05/16/2015  E1.75 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM KOLJ RADIO

0500 PM     HAIL             1 E QUANAH              34.30N 99.72W
05/16/2015  E2.50 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E QUANAH              34.30N 99.72W
05/16/2015  E80.00 MPH       HARDEMAN           TX   STORM CHASER

0505 PM     HAIL             1 E QUANAH              34.30N 99.72W
05/16/2015  E1.75 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   STORM CHASER

0509 PM     HAIL             8 S QUANAH              34.18N 99.74W
05/16/2015  E2.75 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

0522 PM     TSTM WND GST     DUKE                    34.66N 99.57W
05/16/2015  E65.00 MPH       JACKSON            OK   PUBLIC

0525 PM     TSTM WND GST     CROWELL                 33.98N 99.72W
05/16/2015  E60.00 MPH       FOARD              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEEDEY                  35.87N 99.35W
05/16/2015                   DEWEY              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME BLOWN OVER, OTHERS DAMAGED.

0530 PM     TORNADO          3 NW ODELL              34.38N 99.45W
05/16/2015                   WILBARGER          TX   PUBLIC

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N ODELL               34.42N 99.42W
05/16/2015                   JACKSON            OK   STORM CHASER

            SHED DESTROYED

0547 PM     TORNADO          2 E ELK CITY            35.41N 99.38W
05/16/2015                   BECKHAM            OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            I40 AT MILE MARKER 41

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KNOX CITY               33.42N 99.82W
05/16/2015                   KNOX               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CAMPER BLOWN OVER

0615 PM     HAIL             KNOX CITY               33.42N 99.82W
05/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       KNOX               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0620 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SHEPPARD AFB            33.97N 98.51W
05/16/2015                   WICHITA            TX   ASOS

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEO SPRINGS            36.41N 98.44W
05/16/2015                   MAJOR              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W TIPTON                34.50N 99.14W
05/16/2015                   TILLMAN            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWNED EAST OF RED RIVER BRIDGE ON HWY 5

0635 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N MUNDAY              33.48N 99.63W
05/16/2015                   KNOX               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0703 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNTAIN PARK           34.70N 98.95W
05/16/2015                   KIOWA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL ROADS UNDER WATER AND CLOSED, INCLUDING HWY 183

0719 PM     TORNADO          2 S MEERS               34.75N 98.58W
05/16/2015                   COMANCHE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W MEDICINE PARK       34.73N 98.56W
05/16/2015  M59.00 MPH       COMANCHE           OK   MESONET

0746 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S APACHE              34.82N 98.36W
05/16/2015  E65.00 MPH       COMANCHE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ON HWY 62

0755 PM     TORNADO          3 N CYRIL               34.94N 98.20W
05/16/2015                   CADDO              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0800 PM     TORNADO          4 SW GERONIMO           34.44N 98.43W
05/16/2015                   COTTON             OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RELAYED BY KSWO

0802 PM     TORNADO          2 S GERONIMO            34.45N 98.38W
05/16/2015                   COMANCHE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0808 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE LAWTON            34.63N 98.34W
05/16/2015  M70.00 MPH       COMANCHE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0811 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S LAWTON              34.54N 98.42W
05/16/2015                   COMANCHE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN, NOT VERY LARGE. REPORTED BY KSWO

0909 PM     FLASH FLOOD      S DUNCAN                34.50N 97.96W
05/16/2015                   STEPHENS           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 FT OF WATER ON HWY 81

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     TINKER AIR FORCE BASE   35.42N 97.39W
05/16/2015  M58.00 MPH       OKLAHOMA           OK   AWOS

0942 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N COMANCHE            34.38N 97.97W
05/16/2015                   STEPHENS           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30-INCH TREE DOWNED AND BLOCKING OLD HWY 81

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNCAN                  34.50N 97.96W
05/16/2015                   STEPHENS           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2.5-INCH TREE DOWNED AND BLOCKING A STREET.

1007 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STILLWATER              36.12N 97.06W
05/16/2015                   PAYNE              OK   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED BETWEEN NORTH PARK DR AND NORTH
            STAR DR. WATER IS ABOVE THE CURB.

&&

JPIKE