River Flood Warning 121, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
RA CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF OK AND N TX TONIGHT...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. THE TIMING AT ANY GIVEN POINT IS VERY
DIFFICULT...HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS THAT TUESDAY WILL HAVE A VERY
SIMILAR PATTERN TO MONDAY. WHEREVER SHRA OCCUR...VISIBILITY WILL
DROP QUICKLY AND SUBSTANTIALLY. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST...APPROXIMATELY 00Z TO 06Z TOMORROW EVENING...THE INITIAL
EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MAY REACH OUR SOUTHERN SITES...KSPS
IN PARTICULAR...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/

UPDATE...
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES IN MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF I-44.
ALSO...INCREASED OVER LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR I-44.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS NEAR A
DECATUR TEXAS TO ATOKA OKLAHOMA LINE. OTHER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS WERE NEAR A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NORTH OF HOLLIS TO
SOUTH OF WATONGA TO PONCA CITY.

LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OF I-44 WHERE MOISTURE IS
NOT AS DEEP AND INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK. OVERALL...THINK THE
AIRMASS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED FROM EARLIER AND CURRENT
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44...EXCEPT SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES SHOULD
STAY DRY. ONGOING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WAS NOT ALTERED.

IF CLOUDS CLEAR...FOG FORMATION COULD OCCUR. DID NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOME FOG COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RA WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG/SE OF A
LINE FROM KLTS TO KEND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COINCIDES WITH
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT. TIMING OF THE RA IS DIFFICULT IN THIS
TROPICAL/MOIST AIRMASS. SMALL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HAVE THE MOST EFFECT ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND ONLY THE LATTER IS PREDICTABLE. SIMILARLY...CLOUD
BASES WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN/AROUND TSRA AND
SHRA.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THIS AFTERNOON... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS OKLAHOMA. TO THE SW... OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN... A DECENT MCV CONTINUES TO PERSIST. GUIDANCE HAS HAD ROUGH
TIME WITH THIS FEATURE... AND GIVEN ITS IMPLIED STRENGTH FROM
IR/WV... IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS INTO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
TEXAS TONIGHT/TMRW. AT THE MOMENT... FEEL CONFIDENT THE FRONT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
ALONG THE FRONT AND TRAIN... IN RESPONSE... FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. DUAL-POL RAINFALL
RATES FROM KTLX HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 2-4IN AN HOUR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... STARTING TO SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER... BUT HAS
SHIFTED ITS AXIS OF GREATER PRECIP MORE WESTWARD... IN LINE WITH THE
GFS/NAM/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS... WHICH REMAIN A TAD FASTER AND A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP TOTALS. FEEL CONFIDENT WITH A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF... WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE WPC... SO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AND SHIFTED THE PRECIP AXIS WESTWARD...
WITH HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-44
THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND NRN TX... TO 4
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS S/SERN OK... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE
THAN LIKELY DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY... ANY VARIATION IN THE
HIGHEST AXIS OF PRECIP... 20 OR 30MI EAST OR WEST... WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE FLASH FLOODING/FLOODING IMPACTS WILL
BE THE GREATEST. CONSIDERING THE DISTURBANCE HAS YET TO MOVE
INLAND... EXPECT SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK THROUGH TOMORROW.

BESIDES FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS... RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING WILL BE
EXACERBATED BY ALREADY FULL RESERVOIRS. THE RED RIVER AT GAINESVILLE
IS ALREADY FORECAST TO GO MODERATE FLOOD... UP TO 29 FEET. THIS
CREST COULD GO UP OR DOWN DEPENDING ON THE HIGHEST AXIS OF PRECIP.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE HIGHEST PRECIP FALLING OVER OR UPSTREAM OF
GAINESVILLE... WHICH WOULD ALSO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON
LAKE TEXOMA. FARTHER NORTH... CONCERNS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
ARBUCKLES AND INTO THE METRO WILL ALSO INCREASE DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. EVEN WITH THE SHORT SPELL OF DRIER
WEATHER... THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
MAJORITY OF RAINFALL BECOMING RUNOFF. PLEASE STAY AWARE OF FLASH
FLOODING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  82  68  82 /  30  70  60  80
HOBART OK         70  83  67  84 /  30  50  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  83  68  84 /  90  70  70  80
GAGE OK           64  82  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  83  71  83 /  30  60  40  50
DURANT OK         70  82  70  82 /  70  80  90  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR OKZ018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ090.

&&

17/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
736 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-170030-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
736 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT...
CREATING LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES FOR MOTORISTS.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-44. STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND
SATURATED SOILS. AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF OCCURS...FLOODING
OF RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS WILL OCCUR. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE FLOODING SITUATION MAY WORSEN HEADING
INTO LATE WEEK AS A TROPICAL LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF WICHITA FALLS AND OKLAHOMA CITY. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT AND HIGHLY IMPACTING RAIN TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF ARDMORE...AREAS EAST OF
ARDMORE...SULPHUR...AND SEMINOLE.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE CONCERN. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN STORM CHANCES.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

AUSTIN/11/MBS