River Flood Warning 103, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED BY A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MCS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...AFFECTING MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THIS MCS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
INFLUENCE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EAST OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE POSITION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER PERIODS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND BEYOND...A SORT OF
AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
REASONABLE APPROACH TO FORECASTING RAINFALL AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE APPARENT RANDOMNESS OF
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW A RATHER
ANEMIC MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW.

THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW SOME HINT OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND IN JUNE...BUT THAT IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS
FORECAST.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  80  63 /  70  50  50  70
HOBART OK         80  63  80  61 /  70  50  50  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  65  82  64 /  60  70  50  70
GAGE OK           80  61  81  57 /  50  50  50  50
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  81  61 /  60  50  60  60
DURANT OK         85  67  80  65 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

17/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-290930-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
424 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.FLOODING...
NUMEROUS STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONLY WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING.
IN ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A GAGE TO HOBART TO LAWTON TO
ARDMORE LINE...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THIS LINE.

TIMING...
MAINLY 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS...
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2
INCHES AND FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS UP TO HALF DOLLARS AND WIND
REPORTS UP TO 60 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL...THOUGH MOST STORMS WILL
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRST FORM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
THEN MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES AS THEY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN MAINLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...DEEP MOISTURE...AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS. WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF A FEW INCHES MAY OCCUR IN SMALL
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY. THIS MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.FLOODING...
NUMEROUS STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY WORSEN ONGOING
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ083-084-280845-
HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
301 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARDEMAN AND
NORTHWESTERN FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 259 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CHALK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROWELL.

LAT...LON 3407 10005 3418 9990 3409 9977 3396 9971
      3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 241DEG 25KT 3394 10009

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OKZ022-023-027-028-034>039-044-045-TXZ083>090-280900-
COMANCHE OK-GREER OK-GRADY OK-CADDO OK-COTTON OK-KIOWA OK-MCCLAIN OK-
TILLMAN OK-JACKSON OK-WASHITA OK-JEFFERSON OK-STEPHENS OK-CLAY TX-
WILBARGER TX-BAYLOR TX-WICHITA TX-FOARD TX-KNOX TX-ARCHER TX-
HARDEMAN TX-
323 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMANCHE...EAST CENTRAL GREER...
GRADY...CADDO...COTTON...KIOWA...WEST CENTRAL MCCLAIN...TILLMAN...
EASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN WASHITA...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
WESTERN STEPHENS...WESTERN CLAY...WILBARGER...NORTHERN BAYLOR...
WICHITA...SOUTHEASTERN FOARD...NORTHEASTERN KNOX...NORTHERN ARCHER
AND SOUTHEASTERN HARDEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 320 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HINTON TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE
KEMP... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT
ANADARKO...THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS...LAWTON...DUNCAN...FREDERICK...
AND WICHITA FALLS BY 4 AM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 9981 3527 9914 3520 9755 3349 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 287DEG 30KT 3517 9871 3385 9932

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OKZ011-012-017-018-280915-
BLAINE OK-MAJOR OK-KINGFISHER OK-GARFIELD OK-
340 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BLAINE...
SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR...NORTHERN KINGFISHER AND SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 337 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
OKEENE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ENID...HENNESSEY...WAUKOMIS...OKEENE...LAHOMA...RINGWOOD...
DRUMMOND...AMES...MENO...ISABELLA...VANCE AIR FORCE BASE...BISON...
NORTH ENID...HOMESTEAD AND LACEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9839 3635 9844 3645 9781 3602 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 266DEG 35KT 3614 9822

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OKZ023>025-027-037>039-044-045-TXZ086-089-090-280945-
OKLAHOMA OK-COMANCHE OK-CANADIAN OK-GRADY OK-COTTON OK-CADDO OK-
TILLMAN OK-STEPHENS OK-JEFFERSON OK-CLAY TX-ARCHER TX-WICHITA TX-
410 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
COMANCHE...SOUTHERN CANADIAN...GRADY...COTTON...SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...
SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN...WESTERN STEPHENS...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
WESTERN CLAY...ARCHER AND WICHITA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 408 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
8 MILES EAST OF HINTON TO NEAR LAKE KICKAPOO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CITY...WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...DUNCAN...EL
RENO...CHICKASHA...BURKBURNETT...ANADARKO...MARLOW...WALTERS...ARCHER
CITY...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...IOWA PARK...TUTTLE...ELGIN...
HOLLIDAY...UNION CITY AND MINCO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3359 9891 3553 9826 3550 9766 3346 9835
      3347 9842 3343 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0908Z 282DEG 33KT 3545 9820 3364 9880

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
443 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OKZ023>030-037>040-044>046-TXZ086-089-090-281045-
COMANCHE OK-CARTER OK-CANADIAN OK-GRADY OK-CADDO OK-COTTON OK-
OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-LINCOLN OK-MCCLAIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-
TILLMAN OK-GARVIN OK-JEFFERSON OK-STEPHENS OK-CLAY TX-WICHITA TX-
ARCHER TX-
443 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COMANCHE...NORTHWESTERN
CARTER...CANADIAN...GRADY...SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...COTTON...OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...MCCLAIN...
CLEVELAND...SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN...WESTERN GARVIN...JEFFERSON...
STEPHENS...CLAY...EASTERN WICHITA AND ARCHER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM
CDT...

AT 440 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM EL RENO TO 5 MILES WEST OF DUNCAN TO NEAR WINDTHORST...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...NORMAN...WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...MOORE...MIDWEST
CITY...DUNCAN...DEL CITY...EL RENO...CHICKASHA...BURKBURNETT...
NEWCASTLE...BLANCHARD...ANADARKO...PURCELL...MARLOW...HENRIETTA...
WALTERS...WAURIKA AND ARCHER CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 9887 3569 9819 3556 9708 3399 9764
      3386 9783 3388 9796 3389 9798 3347 9798
      3347 9842 3340 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 282DEG 33KT 3539 9785 3358 9846

CMS