Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS CENTERED BETWEEN KGLE AND KDTO IN N
TX AT 23Z. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT N AT
ABOUT 10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED RAIN AREA WILL HAVE A WESTERN LIMIT NEAR A LINE FROM
KSWO TO KOKC TO KLAW TO KSPS. AREAS E OF THAT LINE WILL HAVE
VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...OFTEN IN THE IFR
CATEGORY...THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TO THE W...CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR INITIALLY...BUT MODELS INSIST ON PUSHING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ALL
OF W OK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...AND IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY LOW. AS BILL MOVES NE
TOMORROW...SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY NE ACROSS
THE W AND S PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RATHER STRONG
WINDS...GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KT...WILL CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 50 NM
OF THE CENTER OF BILL WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING BRIEF TORNADOES...WILL ALSO
OCCUR IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM...EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF
TSRA.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL IS JUST NORTH OF FORT WORTH AT MID AFTERNOON. SO
FAR...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE NOT BEEN
EXCESSIVE...BUT 6 HOURLY AMOUNTS ARE APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN FAR
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA (MESONET BURNEYVILLE).

WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...AROUND 10 MPH...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO ADD...RESULTING IN AREAL
FLOODING AND PERHAPS MAJOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. OCCASIONALLY...WARM CORE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY
TO HAVE "CORE RAINS" OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A SMALLER AREA THAT RECEIVES VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL (PERHAPS ARDMORE... TISHOMINGO...PAULS
VALLEY...ADA.) FARTHER WEST...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT OF 1-2
INCH RAINFALL AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TO FINALLY MOVE FASTER NORTH AND EAST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE CENTER OVER OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD
BRING MAINLY DRY...BUT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  68  82  69 /  70  90  50  20
HOBART OK         82  68  88  69 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  69  89  71 /  80  60  30  20
GAGE OK           84  65  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     83  69  80  69 /  30  30  40  20
DURANT OK         79  71  84  71 / 100 100  70  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR OKZ018>020-
     023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

30/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES OVER THE REGION. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHANDLER AND SHAWNEE... TO PAULS VALLEY AND ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. A
FEW WEAK AND BRIEF TORNADOES OR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT FLOODING RAINFALL WILL
BE A MUCH GREATER AND WIDESPREAD CONCERN.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT
STORMS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST... SOUTH CENTRAL... AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

25

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DUNCAN                  34.52N 97.97W
06/17/2015                   STEPHENS           OK   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY AT ELK AND HWY 81. ROAD
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LONE GROVE              34.17N 97.26W
06/17/2015                   CARTER             OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AROUND 6-8 INCHES OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. REPORT RELAYED BY
            BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

RBARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     FLASH FLOOD      W ARDMORE               34.17N 97.14W
06/17/2015                   CARTER             OK   PUBLIC

            HWY 70 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING WEST OF TOWN TO NEAR HWY
            76. REPORT BY SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JPIKE