Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
652 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...

LEANED HEAVILY ON HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING OF IMPACTS. -SHRA/-TSRA
TO CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 16Z AT CKV/BNA
AND 22Z AT CSV. VCSH AFTER THAT TIME AT AIRPORTS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EARLY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED OVER
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WELL AS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX
FORECAST SITUATION AS THE ONGOING STORMS ARE A FEW HOURS EARLY IN
ARRIVAL AND WILL IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS LATER TODAY. SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. IF STORMS CAN GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO MAYBE
EVEN SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER STORMS REDEVELOP OR NOT...CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY IMPACTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS LONG AS THE AREA DOES NOT
BREAK OUT INTO FULL ON SUNSHINE TODAY...LOW TO MID 80S SEEM
REASONABLE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SOLUTION TOO.
ONE CONCERN IS ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA
ALL DAY...SO SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY WATCH WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE.

RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
KEEPING A LID ON TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK
WITH LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY THE
WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES NOW LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SITUATED OVER TEXAS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...THIS
WILL SPELL A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HIGHS WITH LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THIS COLD FRONT IS STILL IN ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR EARLY AUGUST EXPECTED AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH MARKEDLY LOWER HUMIDITY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...NOT
A BAD SCENARIO AT ALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  69  86  68 / 100  20  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    84  67  85  67 /  70  20  10   0
CROSSVILLE     79  67  79  65 / 100  60  10  10
COLUMBIA       84  69  86  68 / 100  20  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   84  69  87  69 /  90  20  10  10
WAVERLY        84  67  85  69 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
506 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
506 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

TNZ093-094-061445-
LAWRENCE TN-WAYNE TN-
902 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND CENTRAL
LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 901 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COLLINWOOD...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWRENCEBURG...WAYNESBORO...LORETTO...COLLINWOOD...ST. JOSEPH...
ETHRIDGE...LEOMA...FIVE POINTS AND WESTPOINT.

LAT...LON 3508 8783 3531 8780 3535 8727 3500 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 1401Z 274DEG 32KT 3520 8772

27!