Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AND RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
STARTING OFF WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER -TSRA/-SHRA
WILL INVADE MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND LIKELY IMPACT TAF SITES BETWEEN
19Z THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...WEST TO EAST. INDIVIDUAL -TSRA COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT
THIS TIME BUT THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS TO BE 19Z-01Z.
ONCE CONVECTION DIES DOWN...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AND LIKELY
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z.

HURLEY

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM AHEAD OF A COMPLEX
OF STORMS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WEST TENNESSEE. BELIEVE COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS
ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. STILL EXPECTING STRONG TO
EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

HURLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 212 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW IN SOUTHERN INDIANA DOWN ALONG
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT WILL CRAWL
EASTWARD TODAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. 1030 MBAR SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF GREAT LAKES REGION WITH STRONG RIDGING NORTH TO SOUTH
DOWN THROUGH PLAINS STATES. UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO EASTERN TEXAS. UPPER TROUGH
WILL WORK EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT ON GFS/AND OVER TENNESSEE
ON EURO. UPPER LOW CENTER WADDLES AROUND MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL WE CHOOSE...AS WE GO THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ACTUAL UPPER LOW POSITION MAY TURN
OUT TO BE A BLEND OF BOTH GFS AND EURO. SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD THIS WAY BUT EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE KEEPS
GETTING CARVED OUT BY REPEATEDLY...SOUTHEASTWARD DIVING SHORT WAVES.
FINALLY UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP AND RETREATS WITH UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATING EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE. THIS
MEANS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL 30 YEAR NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS WORKING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. A FEW SHOWERS ISOLATED STORM HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND
COOKEVILLE LAST HOUR WITH ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM ALABAMA UP THROUGH EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY.
H-TRIPLE-R CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE PLATEAU AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE MID
STATE. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY AS A WARM MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY SO WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S CREATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ONE THING I DID NOTICE ON LATEST
RUC LOOP ARE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500 MBAR) BEING ADVECTED
INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL LEAD
TO GREATER INSTABILITY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
510 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WIND AND LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS IS VERY POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TNZ025-057-311845-
DICKSON-HICKMAN-
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON AND HICKMAN COUNTIES...

AT 115 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE CENTERVILLE...NUNNELLY...LYLES AND
BON AQUA.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3585 8769 3599 8750 3595 8721 3570 8737
      3566 8751 3575 8772

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
125 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TNZ024-056-057-311900-
HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-PERRY-
125 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKMAN...HUMPHREYS AND PERRY
COUNTIES...

AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARSONS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE MOUSETAIL LANDING STATE PARK.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3576 8799 3583 8798 3588 8794 3589 8793
      3588 8771 3566 8774 3557 8802 3561 8804
      3568 8802 3572 8804

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
138 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TNZ057-060-311900-
HICKMAN-MAURY-
138 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HICKMAN AND MAURY
COUNTIES...

AT 138 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE PRIMM SPRINGS.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3596 8722 3595 8720 3580 8722 3573 8724
      3571 8726 3566 8736 3570 8739

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     HAIL             7 E CENTERVILLE         35.79N  87.32W
05/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       HICKMAN            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500530

JACKSON

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