Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
300 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM MI SW ACROSS OK. ORGANIZED LINEAR
CONVECTION NOW FIRING EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND IS AS CLOSE AS WESTERN
KY....JUST NW OF STEWART COUNTY. FURTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF THE TN RIVER.

THE BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MAKE SOME
PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF TN WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS
WESTERN KY. BY 12Z...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH
AS OUR NORTHERN BORDER...BUT CLEARLY THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL BE
TO OUR NORTH. WILL INCLUDE AVG QPF VALUES OF JUST OVER OVER ONE
HALF INCH NORTHWEST...WILL LESSER VALUES AS YOU GO SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FAR AS TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW COULD REACH STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TOMORROW. ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. 850
MB FLOW WILL REACH 40 KTS AND COUPLE WITH SOME DESCENT LOW LEVEL
FORCING. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT STRONG AND THUS...DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. OTW...QPF TOTALS OF 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIST FOR A
SHORT SPELL IN WAKE OF THE FROPA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD SUNRISE AND THAT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES SAT AND SAT NT.

FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...AFTER HIGHS IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...TEMPS
WILL COOL DOWN TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

IN THE EXT FCST...AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. SFC HIGH...THAT WILL BRING THE SEASONAL WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP. SFC BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AND EXTEND FROM TX ENE ACROSS
IL...IN AND OH. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT MID TN WILL BE
UNDER...MODELS HINT TOWARD A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THUS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE INCLUDED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY
REACH OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  76  45  62 /  50  80  60   0
CLARKSVILLE    61  73  41  60 /  80  80  50   0
CROSSVILLE     59  71  44  59 /  40  80  70   0
COLUMBIA       63  77  45  62 /  30  80  50   0
LAWRENCEBURG   61  76  46  62 /  30  80  50   0
WAVERLY        61  75  41  60 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
500 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOBELVILLE TO NASHVILLE TO LAFAYETTE LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MAIN CONCERNS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALMOST ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PICKETT...
FENTRESS...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MAIN CONCERNS
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

PATCHY FROST FORMATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S IN LOW LYING
AND SHELTER AREAS AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
323 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

TNZ024-025-057-022115-
DICKSON-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-
323 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...HICKMAN AND HUMPHREYS
COUNTIES...

AT 321 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HURRICANE MILLS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE BUCKSNORT...PINEWOOD...NUNNELLY...
LYLES...BON AQUA...DICKSON AND BURNS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3615 8731 3589 8721 3585 8722 3577 8772
      3584 8772 3584 8776 3594 8780

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
405 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

TNZ025-026-022130-
CHEATHAM-DICKSON-
405 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHEATHAM AND NORTHEAST
DICKSON COUNTIES...

AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ASHLAND CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE CHEATHAM DAM...ASHLAND CITY AND
PLEASANT VIEW.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3640 8701 3637 8698 3638 8695 3638 8691
      3637 8690 3633 8692 3626 8697 3617 8721
      3632 8730 3635 8728 3643 8708

SHAMBURGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
408 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

TNZ006-007-026-022145-
CHEATHAM-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
408 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...MONTGOMERY AND
ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLARKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE CLARKSVILLE...ADAMS AND CEDAR
HILL.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE WATER TO RISE OVER ROADS AND FLOOD LOW
LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3635 8715 3635 8759 3639 8759 3665 8743
      3665 8680

AL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>