Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF'S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS JUST PASSED NASHVILLE,
WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. LOOK FOR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN AREAS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY EVEN AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE
PLATEAU DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE FRONT MOVING PAST
CSV NO LATER THAN 04Z. SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. DEVELOPING LINE OF
CONVECTION RESIDES JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT. HELICITY VALUES REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST SPC INPUT WILL
PLACE ANOTHER TOR WATCH SO AS TO EXTEND THE CURRENT ONE EASTWARD.
FOR THE MOST PART...STORMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST HAVE BEHAVED
AND HAVE REMAINED SUB SEVERE. BUT...WITH HEATING AND INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE...THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY BE GREETED WITH HIGHER SFC
CAPES. LCL'S ARE PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...BEST HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
THE CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA BY 11 PM TONIGHT.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS. 925 MB WINDS STILL LOOK SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE
CONTINUATION OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. THOUGH THE PERIOD OF
ADVISORY REACHED CRITERIA MAY BE RATHER BRIEF THIS EVENING...WILL GO
AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY.

MOVING ON...THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS...UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TOMORROW...WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT/EASTER SUNRISE...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED FROST
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE PLATEAU
AND LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU. FOR THAT REASON...WILL
REISSUE THE SPS. WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TO RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND
THE PATTERN SETS UP WITH MIDDLE TN RESIDING IN THE WARM AND HUMID
SECTOR. THE FORCING DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT WE WILL SEE A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE UPPER JET AND THAT WILL LEAD TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WE WILL SEE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE WEST. AS
SOME DEGREE OF COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE...OUR SFC CAPES WILL BE ON
THE RISE. SO...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...FROPA ACTIVITY...WHICH IS THE USUAL CATALYST
FOR ORGANIZED SPRING SEVERE ACTIVITY...IS NOT INDICATED...AFTER
TONIGHT...FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THOSE CAPES HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DO GET STRONGER AS HIGH TEMPS APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

NOTE...I AM GOING TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE ZONES RIGHT NOW AS THE
NEW WATCH HAS JUST BEEN UPDATED IN OUR GRAPHICS. THE NPW FOR THE
WIND ADVISORY IS GOING TO BE REISSUED AS WELL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
507 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING OVER ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 10 PM CDT TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS BRIEF FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS OF THIS INTENSITY COULD BREAK TREE
LIMBS EVEN BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PATCHY FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU. THOSE WITH
TENDER VEGETATION MAY WANT TO CONSIDER EITHER COVERING VULNERABLE
PLANTS OR BRINGING THEM INDOORS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
648 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E SMITHVILLE          35.96N  85.77W
04/03/2015  M73 MPH          DE KALB            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500442

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
709 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IRON CITY               35.03N  87.58W
04/03/2015                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO TRAILER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
            LAWRENCE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500443

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
711 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE GREEN HILL        36.26N  86.55W
04/03/2015                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING SAUNDERSVILLE FERRY ROAD JUST NORTH
            OF SAUNDERSVILLE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500444

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
715 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW GREEN HILL        36.23N  86.60W
04/03/2015                   DAVIDSON           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE ACROSS ROADWAY IN 4000 BLOCK OF
            SAUNDERSVILLE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500445

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
718 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S LAWRENCEBURG        35.22N  87.34W
04/03/2015                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE IN 200 BLOCK OF PROSSER ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500446

SHAMBURGER

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