Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Nashville, TN

July 14, 2015Davidson County, Williamson County, Tennessee

NWS Nashville, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2015, 2:31 PM CDT for Davidson County, Williamson County, Tennessee. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2015, 2:31 PM CDT (19:31 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2015, 3:00 PM CDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Nashville, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Davidson County, TN, Williamson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 14, 1:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 24 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1670 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -104 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 991 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.6
Supercell composite: 5.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 12:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 12:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY FOR BNA AND CSV. PLACED TEMPO GROUP AT THOSE TWO
TERMINALS AND LEFT VCTS AT CKV DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY. SFC FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREAS
THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING. DROPPED BNA TO MVFR AND CSV TO LIFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/

UPDATE...

A WARM, MUGGY AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF
A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOWARD THE
AREA. MORNING CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
HAS NOW MOVED EAST INTO MRX'S CWA. ACROSS MIDDLE TN AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A
WEAK SFC BASED CAP.  BY 18Z 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH NO CIN REMAINING. STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE PLATEAU FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING
CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THEN
PUSHING SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING AFTER 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC FRONT. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE 12Z OHX RAOB INDICATED 40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL DESPITE A WARM
THERMAL PROFILE. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE CONDITIONAL ON
INTERACTIONS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT ONCE COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND LINE
SEGMENTS BECOME THE MODE OF CHOICE.

AS FAR AS THE GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  91  70  91 /  50  20  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    73  89  69  90 /  50  20  10  10
CROSSVILLE     69  84  65  84 /  60  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       74  93  70  92 /  50  30  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   74  93  70  92 /  50  30  10  10
WAVERLY        74  91  70  91 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

10

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 5:00 AM CDT, 9 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERNS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO OCCUR WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 2:18 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 14, 2:18 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:21 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:23 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:27 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     HAIL             E FRANKLIN              35.93N  86.84W
07/14/2015  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   TWITTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT OLD NATCHEZ TRACE COUNTRY
            CLUB

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500659

MD

Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:29 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
229 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     HAIL             W FRANKLIN              35.93N  86.84W
07/14/2015  M1.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   TWITTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT OLD NATCHEZ TRACE
            COUNTRY CLUB

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500660

MD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Nashville, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 7:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OHX	Clay	29 min
Jul 14, 7:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Fentress, Pickett	51 min
Jul 14, 7:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Fentress	46 min
Jul 14, 12:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Fentress	25 min
Jul 14, 1:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Fentress, Pickett	44 min
Jul 14, 1:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Fentress, Overton	49 min
Jul 14, 1:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OHX	Fentress, Pickett	26 min
Jul 14, 1:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Clay, Overton, Pickett	39 min
Jul 14, 1:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Jackson, Overton, Putnam	39 min
Jul 14, 1:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Fentress, Pickett	28 min
Jul 14, 2:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Dickson, Humphreys	43 min
Jul 14, 2:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OHX	Fentress	26 min
Jul 14, 2:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson, Williamson	17 min
Jul 14, 2:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Davidson, Trousdale, Wilson	42 min
Jul 14, 2:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Dickson, Hickman, Humphreys	37 min
Jul 14, 2:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cumberland	43 min
Jul 14, 2:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Smith, Trousdale, Wilson	23 min
Jul 14, 2:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Williamson	34 min
Jul 14, 2:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cumberland, Overton, Putnam, White	33 min
Jul 14, 2:53 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OHX	Cumberland, Putnam, White	27 min
Jul 14, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson, Rutherford, Williamson	34 min
Jul 14, 2:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Hickman, Humphreys, Perry	32 min
Jul 14, 3:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson	30 min
Jul 14, 3:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cannon, DeKalb, Rutherford, Smith, Wilson	29 min
Jul 14, 3:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cumberland, Putnam, White	49 min
Jul 14, 3:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cannon, DeKalb, Warren, White	27 min
Jul 14, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cumberland, Putnam, Van Buren, White	46 min
Jul 14, 3:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Hickman, Humphreys, Lewis, Maury, Perry	58 min
Jul 14, 3:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cannon, Rutherford, Wilson	25 min
Jul 14, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	DeKalb, Van Buren, Warren, White	34 min
Jul 14, 3:44 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Cumberland, Putnam, White	5 hr
Jul 14, 3:50 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Hickman, Humphreys, Perry	5 hr
Jul 14, 3:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cannon, Warren	21 min
Jul 14, 3:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OHX	Cannon, Warren	13 min
Jul 14, 4:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Coffee, Grundy, Van Buren, Warren	48 min
Jul 14, 4:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Marshall	47 min
Jul 14, 4:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Bedford, Giles, Marshall, Maury	34 min
Jul 14, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Coffee, Grundy	35 min
Jul 14, 5:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Giles, Lawrence, Wayne	56 min
Jul 14, 5:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Wayne	42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.