Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

,DISCUSSION...

WITH AN MCS BEARING DOWN ON THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING AND THE
FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP ITS CONTINUATION...
HAVE BUMPED POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ACCORDINGLY. AS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN...EXPECTATION IS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE VALUES AND THE MCS
CREATING ITS OWN SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE MEANS THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL AND PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

I ALSO ADDED A LITTLE RESOLUTION TO THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON'T BE
COMPLETELY BLANKETED WITH RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE
COULD GET A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME BEFORE
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND HEADS
TOWARDS THE MID-STATE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MID STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRANSIENT
WITHIN THE FLOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME
OF DAY OR NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
503 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
503 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.

SHAMBURGER