Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF PERIOD LEADING TO VARYING
FLIGHT RULES. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. HRRR HAS CONVECTION WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT.
WILL SEE IF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CAN HOLD CONVECTION TOGETHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT IN CIGS OVER THE TAF PERIOD BUT AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES RETURN AROUND 18Z.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AGAIN TOMORROW AROUND THE 5-10 KT
RANGE.

REAGAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  80  67  81 /  70  60  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    68  79  66  80 /  40  60  40  50
CROSSVILLE     66  76  66  75 /  80  70  60  60
COLUMBIA       71  80  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   72  79  68  79 /  80  60  60  60
WAVERLY        69  79  68  79 /  40  70  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
500 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SPREADING ACROSS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF A FEW INCHES AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY...AND
PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES THE MAIN THREATS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF A FEW INCHES AND FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHAMBURGER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
843 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CELINA                  36.55N  85.50W
07/02/2015                   CLAY               TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS AROUND CELINA FLOODED AND CLOSED. FLASH
            FLOODING BEING REPORTED IN ARCOTT AREA AS WELL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500620

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E LEBANON             36.21N  86.30W
07/02/2015                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR BLUEBIRD ROAD AND OLD
            BLUEBIRD ROAD. TREE ON CAR. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500621

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
859 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E LEBANON             36.21N  86.30W
07/02/2015                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND TIN ROLLED UP ON ROOF OF PORTABLE
            MEDICAL UNIT AT FAIRGROUNDS. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500622

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
918 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COOKEVILLE              36.16N  85.51W
07/02/2015                   PUTNAM             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER THE ROAD ON NEAL STREET. JEFFERSON AVE AND
            VETERANS DR HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500623

10